847
FXUS64 KCRP 052342
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
642 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS DUE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
EVENING. AN EXTENSION IS LIKELY.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATE
TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. REMEMBER, "WAVE, YELL, SWIM PARALLEL!"
- DAILY LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH NEXT WORK
WEEK. "WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS."
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-40%)
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. INTO MIDWEEK, WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, LEADING TO WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, WITH ONLY LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ANTICIPATED. LATE IN
THE WEEK, WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND POCKETS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST,
BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR IMPACTFUL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID-90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE MID-70S ALONG THE COAST. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY WILL MAKE AFTERNOONS FEEL WARMER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE MENTIONED, WE ARE GOING TO
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE AS MARINE AND COASTAL HAZARDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A COMBINATION OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED
WITH TOMORROW'S FULL MOON, LONG-PERIOD SWELLS OF 7-9 SECONDS, AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS
ELEVATED. THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY BRING WATER TO THE DUNES,
PARTICULARLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, PROLONGING THE NEED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. BEACHGOERS ARE
URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION, AS STRONG RIP CURRENTS CAN OCCUR EVEN
UNDER SEEMINGLY CALM CONDITIONS, AND LOW-LYING BEACH ROADS MAY
BECOME INUNDATED NEAR HIGH TIDE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPOS HAVE
REMAINED FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
(VCT/ALI) AND MVFR CIGS OVER COT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A LOW
(30%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL BEND AFTER 08Z INTO THE
MORNING HOURS, THEREFORE A PROB30 HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR CRP FOR
RA AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTION. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT THEN REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KNOTS BUT SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE (BF 3-4) THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY WILL SHIFT TO AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. A
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE (BF 4-5) REDEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW (20-40%) SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO LOW TO MODERATE (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ABOVE 30% THROUGH THIS WEEK. SUSTAINED SURFACE AND 20 FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK AT LESS THAN 20 MPH OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH DAILY LOW
(20-40%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. OVERALL, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 89 74 90 / 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 68 92 70 92 / 0 20 10 30
LAREDO 72 96 74 95 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 69 94 70 94 / 10 10 0 20
ROCKPORT 74 88 76 89 / 10 20 10 20
COTULLA 70 95 72 95 / 20 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 77 86 78 87 / 20 20 10 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...EMF/94
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