209
FXUS64 KCRP 070002
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
702 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ONGOING DUE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEK.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A MODERATE TO
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. REMEMBER, "WAVE, YELL, SWIM PARALLEL!"
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY THROUGH
THURSDAY, BEFORE DRIER AIR DIMINISHES RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TODAY. AS THE
TROUGH WEAKENS, A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO SOUTH TEXAS,
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND LIMITING RAINFALL TO LOW (20-30%) CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
BY LATE THIS WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN, STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN MEXICO, WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL ENHANCE
SUBSIDENCE, ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT, RAIN CHANCES BECOME NEXT TO NONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID-90S, WHILE DRIER AIR WILL
HELP LOWS DECREASE FROM THE LOW 70S INTO THE MID-60S INLAND BY THE
WEEKEND.
COASTAL HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHTS FULL MOON
HAVE PRODUCED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND BARRIER ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. THESE IMPACTS ARE BEING AMPLIFIED BY PERSISTENT EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 7-9 SECONDS
WHICH ARE PROMOTING GREATER WAVE RUN- UP. ADDITIONALLY, THE MOON'S
APPROACH TOWARD PERIGEE WILL SUSTAIN ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF LULL IN THE COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY RENEW FLOODING CONCERNS. A HEIGHTENED RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO PERSIST, MAKING FOR DANGEROUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS. BEACHGOERS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION, AS WATER
MAY COVER BEACH ACCESS ROADS, AND RIP CURRENTS CAN OVERPOWER EVEN
STRONG SWIMMERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS TO CREEP INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION, MOST
NOTABLY AT ALI/VCT/COT. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN IN THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG THE COAST, REFLECTED BY THE PROB30 IN CRP, THEN LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE (BF 2-3) WILL PERSIST
UNTIL A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE (BF 4-5)
REDEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE
(20-50%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY
LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 10-20% THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE
30% THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SUSTAINED SURFACE AND 20 FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK AT LESS THAN 20 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH DAILY LOW (20-40%) SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WE COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 30% OVER THE NORTHERN
BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. OVERALL, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 74 90 74 90 / 10 20 10 20
VICTORIA 70 92 70 93 / 10 20 10 10
LAREDO 74 95 74 94 / 0 20 20 20
ALICE 70 94 72 93 / 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 76 90 75 90 / 10 20 10 20
COTULLA 72 95 73 95 / 0 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 71 92 72 92 / 10 30 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 79 87 78 87 / 10 20 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ245-
342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...EMF/94
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