453
FXUS64 KCRP 071129
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS DUE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY
REOCCUR MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A MODERATE TO
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. REMEMBER, "WAVE, YELL, SWIM PARALLEL!"
- LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY THROUGH THURSDAY,
GENERALLY SOUTH OF HWY-44, BEFORE DRIER AIR DIMINISHES RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY,
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NHC CURRENTLY HAS A 10% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER
THE 48 HOURS BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCING FEATURE OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL CREATE
A DISTINCT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN DRIER AIRMASS AROUND OR
NORTH OF OUR CWA, AND TROPICAL MOISTURE AIRMASS OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THESE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH, WE'LL MAINTAIN
A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, FOCUSED SOUTH OF HWY-44. FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
BE RAIN-FREE WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING STRONG OVERHEAD AND
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE MID
80S ALONG THE ISLANDS TO THE MID 90S INLAND, WHEREAS THE USUAL LOWS
IN THE 70S WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE 60S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING SWELL PERIODS, THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN WATER REACHING THE DUNES TODAY AND TONIGHT. P-ETSS
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIDES REACHING 2.0 FT MSL AT
ARANSAS PASS, BUT WE SAW THAT THIS PAST AFTERNOON AND OBSERVED WATER
FAILING TO REACH THE DUNES. NONETHELESS, WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS, ENHANCING THE EKMAN TRANSPORT AND LIKELY
FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SWELLS. I AM ESPECIALLY CONCERNED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION TO WAVE RUNUP THREATS, DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT AT TIMES WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
ANY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING. HAVE PROB30S FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT ALI/CRP/VCT WITH
REDUCED VSBYS IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A LESSER CHANCE
FOR FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 3-4) TONIGHT, WILL SHIFT
BACK NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY, STRENGTHENING TO A MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE (BF 4-5), BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 10-
20% CLOSE OUT THE REST OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE
30% THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SUSTAINED SURFACE AND 20 FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK AT LESS THAN 20 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND WITH DAILY LOW (20-40%)
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY-44 THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WE
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 30% OVER
THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHERE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT VALUES ARE BETWEEN 70-90TH PERCENTILE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. OVERALL, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 74 90 74 / 30 10 10 10
VICTORIA 93 70 94 70 / 10 10 10 0
LAREDO 94 74 95 73 / 20 20 20 10
ALICE 94 72 93 71 / 30 10 20 0
ROCKPORT 90 75 90 75 / 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 95 73 95 73 / 10 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 91 73 92 72 / 40 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 87 78 87 78 / 30 10 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...BF/80
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