886
FXUS64 KCRP 071744
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS DUE TO MINOR COASTAL
INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
WHILE WE KEEP A STEADY FLOW OF MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, MID-LEVELS REMAIN
DOMINATED BY A MEANDERING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS KEEPS US
GENERALLY QUIET, BUT WITH A SEASONAL 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS DAILY, MAINLY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS. BY THE WEEKEND, A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND IS
EXPECTED TO END THE ALREADY SMALL RAIN CHANCES. WE COULD SEE A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS DRIER AIRMASS, BUT AS WITH
THE LAST ONE, NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL INDICATE A
DECREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
AS AT LEAST MARGINALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
REGARDING THE AREA OF INTEREST IN THE CURRENTLY TROPICAL OUTLOOK
WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION, IT REMAINS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (10%) AND EVEN IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE ONE OTHER THING TO REALLY TOUCH ON HERE IS COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL. IT'S A COMPLICATED SITUATION AS WE MOVE AWAY FROM THE
FULL MOON PERIOD AND WAVE PERIODS ARE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND.
FOR TODAY, CONTINUING TO LEAN TOWARD WATER NOT REACHING HIGH ENOUGH
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS, BUT GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE AN
UPTICK LATER IN THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CAMERAS AND WILL BE
A LATE DECISION IF AN ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY TODAY. ONE THING TO
NOTE THOUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IS FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY, AND AT TIMES STRONGER WHICH DOES TEND TO GIVE US A
HIGHER RUN-UP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD IMPACT MAINLY ALI/VCT TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANCES ONLY 20-30%. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED
MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 3KFT. OVERNIGHT DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RETURN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 3-4) TONIGHT, WILL SHIFT
BACK NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY, STRENGTHENING TO A MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE (BF 4-5), BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES OF 10- 20% CLOSE OUT THE REST OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
RH VALUES REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (>30%) WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY COULD BRING BRIEFLY LOW RH VALUES BELOW 30% FOR SATURDAY,
BUT MAINLY WEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 90 74 89 / 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 70 94 70 93 / 10 10 0 10
LAREDO 73 95 73 93 / 10 20 10 10
ALICE 72 94 71 93 / 10 10 0 20
ROCKPORT 75 90 75 89 / 10 10 10 20
COTULLA 73 95 73 95 / 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 73 91 72 90 / 10 20 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 78 87 78 86 / 10 20 20 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...PH/83
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page