779
FXUS64 KCRP 080536
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1236 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS DUE TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING, INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL PLAINS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
DAILY RAIN CHANCES OF 10-30% WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A
MODERATE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS S TX.
PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE 1.5-1.8 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER W TX. THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS S TX FRIDAY,WITH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING TO <10% OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MODERATE TO HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
TO 15-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WHICH WILL AID IN DRIVING THE WATER UP THE SHORE. HOWEVER, WE WILL
BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FULL MOON AND SWELL PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE DURING THIS WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, BY THE WEEKEND SWELL
PERIODS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THE P-ETSS DOES SHOW TIDE LEVELS OVER 2FT
MSL THROUGH THE WEEK BUT THIS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN
OVERESTIMATING RECENTLY. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE AND
UNFAVORABLE PARAMETERS, WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY AND/OR HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR HOW THE TIDES ARE RESPONDING. WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK.
AS FOR TROPICAL WEATHER, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS WATCHING
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THERE IS A
LOW 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR S TX.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS BUT HAVE INCLUDED
IN TAFS AS WEATHER TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.
THERE'S A POSSIBILITY LRD COULD SEE IFR CIGS BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE
MORNING WITH AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 3-4) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO A FRESH TO STRONG
(BF 5-6) FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN WEAKENING TO A MODERATE
(BF4) OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY
LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 10-20% CLOSE OUT THE REST OF THE WEEK AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
RH VALUES REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (>30%) WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BRIEFLY LOW RH
VALUES SLIGHTLY BELOW 30%, MAINLY NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. HOWEVER, A GENERALLY WEAK WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 74 89 73 / 20 10 20 10
VICTORIA 94 70 92 65 / 10 10 10 0
LAREDO 95 73 93 70 / 20 10 10 0
ALICE 93 71 92 69 / 10 0 10 0
ROCKPORT 90 76 90 73 / 10 10 20 0
COTULLA 95 72 94 70 / 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 91 72 90 70 / 20 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 87 78 86 77 / 20 10 30 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...BF/80
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