321
FXUS64 KCRP 081804
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
104 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS DUE TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING, INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- LOW (20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED, BUT STILL THINK WE
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOW LEVEL (700-850MB) ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND ONLY HAVE
AROUND 20% MENTIONED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION FOR
TOMORROW, BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO SOUTH AND EAST
AREA. AFTER THAT, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH A
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STALLS NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. DON'T
EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO KNOCK OFF A FEW DEGREES ON THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. AT THE SURFACE THE DRIER DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE INLAND WHERE DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE MID 50S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. CLOSER TO THE COAST WE'LL BE LUCKY
TO SEE 60 (DEWPOINT) FRIDAY, BUT COULD BE A BIT DRIER SATURDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS, WITH A FEW SPOTS NORTH LIKELY TOUCHING 58-59.
WILL SEE A RETURN OF STEADY ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW, BUT AN ISOLATED SEA
BREEZE SHOWER ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE POTENTIAL IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR FOR
NECESSARY UPDATES. MODERATE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN WEAKENING TO MODERATE (BF4) OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW TO
MODERATE (20-50%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 10-20% CLOSE
OUT THE REST OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
RH VALUES REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (>30%) WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BRIEFLY LOW
RH VALUES SLIGHTLY BELOW 30%, MAINLY NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY TO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HOWEVER, A GENERALLY WEAK WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 89 73 89 / 10 20 10 10
VICTORIA 70 93 65 92 / 10 10 0 0
LAREDO 73 94 71 94 / 10 20 0 10
ALICE 72 93 69 93 / 10 20 0 10
ROCKPORT 77 89 73 88 / 10 20 10 10
COTULLA 72 94 70 95 / 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 73 91 71 90 / 10 30 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 86 77 85 / 10 30 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...PH/83
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