536
FXUS64 KCRP 091137
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
- POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS DUE TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND
SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH WILL AID IN
DRIVING THE WATER UP TOWARD THE DUNES. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE MOVING
TOWARD A QUARTER MOON AND SWELL PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
AROUND 7 SECONDS THROUGH SATURDAY, ALL OF WHICH ARE NOT HELPFUL IN
PUSHING THE WATER UP TO THE DUNES. AM EXPECTING THAT THE STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING WAVES WILL ALSO INCREASE SWELL PERIODS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MODELS INDICATE, THUS LEADING TO A MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE THAT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, BUT LESS SURE SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, A NORTHEAST FLOW OR
LONG-SHORE FLOW IS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LIKELY
THROUGH FRI. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 8 SECONDS
BY SUNDAY, BUT WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AND SWITCH AROUND TO EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LEADING TO LESS CONFIDENCE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, BUT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR NOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LOW TO MEDIUM (10-30%) FOR
NEXT WEEK. A MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OF MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES WITH 10-
30% CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHERN
BRUSH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS OF 1.5-1.9 INCHES) COMBINED WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A VERY
WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROUGHING, PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER S TX BRINGING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO DROP TO 1.0 OR LOWER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK, BUT
THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
LOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OBSERVED OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING LRD. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF COT
AND OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING, BUT ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, BUT MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING
SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST
AND CRP. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
A NORTHEAST WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO A FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) FLOW
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
WEAKENING TO A MODERATE (BF4) FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. LOW
RAIN CHANCES OF 5-20% FRIDAY, THEN DRY THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY (>30%)
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BRIEFLY LOW RH VALUES
SLIGHTLY BELOW 30%, MAINLY NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. HOWEVER, A GENERALLY WEAK WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
FIRE WEATHER THREATS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 73 89 68 / 20 10 10 0
VICTORIA 92 67 92 61 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 94 71 94 67 / 20 10 0 0
ALICE 92 69 93 64 / 20 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 90 74 89 70 / 20 10 0 0
COTULLA 93 69 94 65 / 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 91 70 90 65 / 30 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 87 77 86 75 / 20 10 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-
275.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page