070
FXUS64 KCRP 111121
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
621 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
- POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS DUE TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING, CONTINUES SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A HIGH RISK
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS IS DUE TO WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR WATER RUN UP. HOWEVER,
THE SWELL PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 8 SECONDS BY
SUNDAY, WHICH MAY GIVE THE WATER JUST ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO REACH THE
DUNES DURING HIGH TIDE. THE P-ETSS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH TIDES
OVER 2FT MSL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS WELL. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN DECREASES AS SWELL PERIODS DROP TO AROUND 4 SECONDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR THE RIP CURRENT RISK, SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SHORE
AND THE NEW MOON IS DAYS AWAY, THE RISK WILL BE KEPT AT MODERATE
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY COMBINED WITH INCREASING SWELL PERIODS TO
AROUND 8 SECONDS, THE RIP CURRENT RISK COULD INCREASE TO A HIGH
RISK. BUT MORE LIKELY WILL CONTINUE AT A MODERATE RISK DUE TO
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.
WEATHER WISE, THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY
LOW (<5%) THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
THE CHANCE BRIEFLY INCREASES TO 20% DUE TO A SURGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARMER HIGHS AND COOLER
LOWS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME LOWS NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. LIGHT VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL VEER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWER DEWPOITNS, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS EARLY THIS MORNING NO FOG WAS
OBSERVED. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MAY JUST BE TOO SIGNIFICANT TO
OVERCOME FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TO RESULT IN FOG.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
A GENTLE (BF 3) NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THE
LIGHT FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 3-4) WILL DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK. VERY LOW (<10%) RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH LOW RH VALUES BETWEEN 25-30%, MAINLY THE BRUSH COUNTRY
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE ERC FORECAST WILL BE AT 80-90TH
PERCENTILE OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND
BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, A GENERALLY WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
FIRE WEATHER THREATS. MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE NEXT WEEK AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS IS
VERY LOW (<5%) THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 68 87 69 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 91 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 93 67 93 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 93 62 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 89 73 88 73 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 94 65 94 67 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 92 62 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 86 75 84 76 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ245-
342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94
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