481
FXUS64 KCRP 112309
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
609 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
- COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
THE MAIN STORYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THREAT OF COASTAL
FLOODING. WATER LEVELS REACHED THE DUNES AGAIN AT MANY SITES WITH
YESTERDAYS HIGH TIDE. SWELL PERIODS WILL INCREASE FROM 7 SECONDS TO
8 SECONDS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER SWELL PERIODS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WATER LEVELS. THE P-ETSS MODEL CONTINUES TO REMAIN CONSISTENT
SHOWING WATER LEVELS REACHING BETWEEN 2.3-2.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL EVERY NIGHT AT TIME OF HIGH TIDES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SWELL PERIODS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE TO 4-6 SECONDS WHICH WILL HELP TAME THE THREAT OF
COASTAL FLOODING.
OTHER THAN THAT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ONLY SLIM CHANCES (LESS THAN 10%) FOR RAIN THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY, WHERE LOW END RAIN CHANCES (20-25%) ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN BRUSH
COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VERY BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALI AND VCT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT
DURATION OF AN HOUR OR LESS, AND ONLY A 30% CHANCE OF OCCURRING
PER THE SREF, WILL NOT MENTION IN VCT'S OR ALI'S TAF AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 10-15
KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
A GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE (BF 3) IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE INCREASING TO A MODERATE BREEZE (BF 4) SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE A GENTLE BREEZE RETURNS. SLIM RAIN CHANCES (LESS THAN 10%)
ARE EXPECTED EVERYDAY EXCEPT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND LATE NEXT WEEK
WHEN LOW (15-25%) CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIEST WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
RANGING FROM 25-35% EACH AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAK, THE
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT THOSE TWO DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE 55-80TH PERCENTILE WITHIN THE AREA OF THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WHICH WILL YIELD A LOW CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 62 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 67 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 64 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 73 87 73 88 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 65 94 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 64 89 67 90 / 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 75 85 76 85 / 0 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ245-342>347-
442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...TE/81
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