867
FXUS64 KCRP 141129
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN THE CHANCE DECREASES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
ARE BORDERLINE AND THE WATER MAY ONLY REACH THE DUNES IN SOME
LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING, AS WELL AS THE RIP CURRENT RISK, DIMINISHES THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK DUE TO DECREASING SWELL PERIODS AND LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER S TX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS A
MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES THE TX COAST FROM THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5-1.8
INCHES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND SPREAD
TO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW TO MEDIUM (10-40%) CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH PWATS DROPPING TO
AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH TRACKING WEST ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXITS TO THE
NORTHWEST AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE CONUS. AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION, ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST TX THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THE UPPER
TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO S TX BY SUNDAY WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, THE COMBINATION OF
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BRING A 20%
CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF S TX BY
SUNDAY. NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN, BUT THE AIRMASS MAY BE DRIER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VARIOUS PATCHES OF MVFR/VFR BORDERLINE CEILINGS STRETCH ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS, MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF I-37. THESE MVFR
CEILINGS POSE A THREAT OVER ALL SITES EXCEPT VCT THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
THIN LINE OF SHOWERS PASS ACROSS CORPUS CHRISTI BAY EARLIER THIS
MORNING, THERE REMAINS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY ADVECTING FROM THE GULF, MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY-44.
THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT
FROM RA FOR CRP/ALI/LRD. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND MAY
SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. CRP WILL EXPERIENCE THE
GREATEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. I'M LESS CONFIDENT FOR FOG AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
SINCE NONE WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LESS
THAN 30% CHANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE (BF 3-4) CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY, BECOMING A GENTLE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 3) WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE (BF 4) OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY. LOW (5-20%) RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30% THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD AND THE ERC FORECAST WILL BE AT 70-90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. HOWEVER, A GENERALLY
WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREATS. THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS IS LOW TO MEDIUM (10-40%)
TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND TO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH
COUNTRY. LOW TO VERY LOW CHANCES EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 67 88 68 / 20 0 10 0
VICTORIA 91 62 91 63 / 0 0 10 0
LAREDO 88 69 92 68 / 20 10 0 0
ALICE 90 64 92 64 / 30 0 10 0
ROCKPORT 88 70 88 72 / 0 0 10 0
COTULLA 89 65 93 66 / 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 88 64 89 65 / 30 0 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 85 74 84 76 / 20 0 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ345-
442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94
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