548
FXUS64 KCRP 142323
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
623 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- COASTAL FLOODING RISK DECREASES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
WITH THE CANCELLATION OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EARLIER THIS
MORNING, THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEAK IS A
DECREASING ONE. THIS WEEKEND, SWELL PERIODS INCREASE TO NEAR OR
ABOVE 7 SECONDS, HOWEVER A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK DOWN.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE,
AN INVERTED TROUGH IS CIRCLING AROUND THE RIDGE WITH A MORE
INVERTED TROUGH LIKE FEATURE MOVING ONSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
BEING ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN
PRIMARILY IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF AND MORE SO TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS HAVE A 10-20% POPS
FRIDAY, BUT THAT PRETTY MUCH IS THE EXTENT OF ANY MENTIONABLE POPS
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, THOUGH NOT SO MUCH WITH ANY NOTICEABLE
TEMPERATURE DROP. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE ONE IN WHICH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES DROP AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN
RH'S DROP FROM THE 35-40% ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY TO
MIN RH'S AS LOW AS 25% FOR THE SAME AREA ON SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS
WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY FIRE CONCERNS GIVEN THE LOW RH VALUES.
TEMPERATURE WISE, LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND ZONES WILL
STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS,
BEFORE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS WEEK, ALLOWING THE HEAT RISK TO
CLIMB TO A MODERATE RISK DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
CIGS AT LRD HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND MVFR LEVELS AS WE SEE
DECAYING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. HAVE NOTED JUST ABOVE MVFR
LEVELS IN THE TAFS, AND EXPECT THIS TO LAST ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE CIGS BEGIN TO INCREASE. FARTHER EAST THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER WE HAVE SEEN TODAY WILL DISSIPATE MORE QUICKLY. VCT ALREADY
SKC, AND SEEING THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS APPROACHING CRP.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT DO HAVE MENTION OF AN MVFR VIS AT
ALI IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF BRIEF GUSTS NEAR LRD
THIS EVENING, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
A GENTLE BREEZE (BF 3) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE (BF 4) OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY. LOW (5-20%) RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30% THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD AND THE ERC FORECAST WILL BE AT 70-90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. HOWEVER, A GENERALLY
WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREATS. THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS IS LOW TO MEDIUM (10-40%)
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND TO THE SOUTHERN
BRUSH COUNTRY. LOW TO VERY LOW CHANCES EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 88 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 62 91 63 88 / 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 70 93 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 64 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 70 87 73 87 / 0 0 0 10
COTULLA 66 93 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 64 89 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 74 85 75 85 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...PH/83
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