221
FXUS64 KCRP 150532
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1232 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP US GENERALLY QUIET,
THOUGH AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL RIDE ALONG THE SOUTH PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEXAS COAST. UNFORTUNATELY,
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS MINIMAL INTO
SOUTH TEXAS AND CONFINED TO THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND WILL NOT
GIVE US MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES. WE COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO AT LEAST APPROACH THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IT'S DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS TIME
WHETHER THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO GET THROUGH AS IT
FIGHTS AGAINST A STUBBORN MARINE LAYER. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR
WINDS TO BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEWPOINTS TO
DROP, ESPECIALLY INLAND, BUT THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS - IF
THEY MAKE IT - WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WE WOULD EXPECT RETURN FLOW
BY MONDAY.
AFTER ANOTHER MORNING (WEDNESDAY) OF NEAR NORMAL LOWS, INCREASING
DEWPOINTS WILL BRING GRADUALLY INCREASING MIN TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY.
IF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY MOVES IN, LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM ONLY A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBY OVER ALI
AND MVFR CIGS OVER LRD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 10-15Z.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
A GENTLE BREEZE (BF 3) WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE (BF 4) OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. LOW (5-20%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF
THE PERIOD, BUT CHANCE COULD INCREASE TO MODERATE (30-40%)
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30% THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD AND THE ERC FORECAST WILL BE AT 70-90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY COULD BRING LOW RH VALUES IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY FOR
THE DAY. HOWEVER, A GENERALLY WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 68 87 70 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 91 63 87 65 / 0 0 10 0
LAREDO 93 68 92 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 92 65 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 88 73 87 73 / 0 0 0 10
COTULLA 93 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 89 66 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 84 76 / 0 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...EMF/94
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