662
FXUS64 KCRP 152323
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
623 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- LOW CHANCES (15-25%) FOR ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
WE ARE LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG INCREASING FOR THE
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WHILE
THAT PLAYS OUT, CAMS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME STREAMER SHOWERS MOVING
IN FROM THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF, SO I BUMPED UP POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS (STILL GENERALLY RANGING FROM 15-25%). THESE END
BY AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SWITCHING TO MORE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THAT'S THE
BEST WE CAN DO FOR RAIN IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOOKING AT THIS WEEKEND, THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS "COLD" FRONT WILL MAKE
IT. GFS WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT OUT IN THE NORTHERN-HALF OF THE
CWA AS IT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
WANTS TO GIVE THE FRONT A BIT MORE OF MOMENTUM TO CLEAR THE COAST
QUICKER. WE'LL HAVE A BETTER IDEA IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS, BUT WHAT
WILL LIKELY HAPPEN IS THAT LOCATIONS IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY WILL SEE THE BIGGEST DROPS IN
DEWPOINT TEMPS. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN RH'S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
DROP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS AS LOW AS 20-30%. NORMALLY THIS
WOULD ELEVATE THE FIRE RISK, BUT WEAK WINDS WILL LIMIT THAT
THREAT.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
THE HEAT RISK REACHING A MODERATE RISK AT TIMES. FOR THOSE LUCKY
ENOUGH TO EXPERIENCE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND, WILL HAVE A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (30-40%) OF SEEING A LOW TEMPERATURE BELOW
60F ON MONDAY MORNING (MOSTLY IN VICTORIA COUNTY).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS, BUT CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR. HOWEVER SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE NIGHT MAINLY FOR VCT AND ALI. A FEW WEAK
STREAMER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING
HOURS, BUT COVERAGE EXPECTATIONS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM THE
TAF AT THIS POINT. ANY SHOWERS THAT WOULD IMPACT VCT OR CRP WOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN/PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) THROUGH
SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 2 FT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 3 FT
FROM FRIDAY. A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEARING THE COAST ON SUNDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO BE MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AT MODERATE STRENGTH. LOW RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (15-25%) AND THEN INCREASE TO MODERATE
CHANCES (25-35%) ON FRIDAY. LOW CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30% THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD AND THE ERC FORECAST WILL BE AT 70-90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY COULD BRING LOW RH VALUES IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY FOR
THE DAY. HOWEVER, A GENERALLY WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER A WETTING RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 87 70 89 / 10 20 0 10
VICTORIA 63 87 65 89 / 0 10 10 30
LAREDO 67 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 64 90 66 93 / 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 73 87 73 88 / 10 10 10 20
COTULLA 66 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 65 88 67 91 / 0 10 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 75 85 76 86 / 10 20 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...PH/83
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