316
FXUS64 KCRP 161101
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
601 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 559 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
- LOW CHANCES (15-25%) FOR ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SURFACE MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE SHORT TERM,
THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPROACHES 50 G/KG/12HR,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. AS IS TYPICAL, MOST OF THESE
WILL PRODUCE ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SHOULD BE VERY
BRIEF. WE'LL ALSO HAVE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS
DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70 NEAR THE COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST THURSDAY WILL BE ABSORBED INTO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, BUT MAINLY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN A
10-20% PROBABILITY OF PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
FOR THE WEEKEND WE'LL BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT APPROACH...AND THEN
WATCHING IT MOST LIKELY STALL NORTH OF OUR AREA, ONCE AGAIN LEAVING
US WAITING FOR OUR FIRST GOOD COOL DOWN OF THE FALL. THAT SAID, THE
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUN AND ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
WITH IT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN, SO WILL KEEP A LITTLE BIT OF
HOPE THAT WE COULD SEE IT PUSH THROUGH. REGARDLESS OF IF IT PUSHES
THROUGH, THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS TOO DRY TO BRING ANY REAL CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL, AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO DROP MUCH FOR THE
DAYTIME, BUT A DECREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS, MAINLY INLAND. RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR ALI AND VCT WHICH COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE COAST ON SUNDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO BE MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AT MODERATE STRENGTH. LOW RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (15-25%) AND THEN INCREASE TO MODERATE
CHANCES (25-35%) ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30% THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD AND THE ERC FORECAST WILL BE AT 70-90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY COULD BRING LOW RH VALUES IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY FOR
THE DAY. HOWEVER, A GENERALLY WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER A WETTING RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 70 89 72 / 10 0 10 0
VICTORIA 86 66 88 69 / 10 0 40 0
LAREDO 92 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 90 66 93 68 / 0 0 10 0
ROCKPORT 87 73 87 75 / 10 10 30 10
COTULLA 92 67 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 88 67 91 68 / 0 0 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 86 77 / 10 10 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...LS/77
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