128
FXUS64 KCRP 161743
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
- LOW CHANCES (15-25%) FOR ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH COASTAL TEXAS TODAY LEADING
TO A NARROW STREAK OF CLOUDS WITH MINIMAL RAIN DUE TO PWATS MAXING
OUT AT ~1.5". THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION BY
FRIDAY, GIVING THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
(15-25%) AND LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A "COLD" FRONT WILL
TRY TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS, BUT LIKE PREVIOUS FRONTAL
PASSAGES, ANY SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN TEMPERATURE IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
MINIMUM RH VALUES TO BOTTOM OUT AS LOW AS 30%. WEAK WINDS WILL
LIMIT THE FIRE RISK BUT DEFINITELY WORTH MONITORING SHOULD THE
FORECAST MIN RH VALUE TREND DOWN ON SUNDAY.
AS WE START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, RIDGE INFLUENCE CREEPS BACK IN
PUSHING MOST OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS GENERALLY NORTH OF TEXAS. FOR
THIS REASON, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WHISPER OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE
CREEPS NEAR SOUTH TEXAS AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SETTING UP ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
PATCHY FOG FOR KALI/KVCT. BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FOR THE LOCATIONS NEAR KVCT AND OUT TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. FOR THIS REASON, A PROB30 LINE WAS ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
-RA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE COAST ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO BE MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY AT MODERATE STRENGTH. LOW RAIN CHANCES BEGIN FROM EARLY
TODAY (15-25%) AND THEN INCREASE TO MODERATE CHANCES (25- 35%) ON
FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
MIN RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 35% FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS
OF THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS ON SUNDAY LEADING TO FORECAST MIN RH'S
DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 30%. WHILE THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR LOCATIONS INCLUDING AND EAST OF
THE BRUSH COUNTRY, WEAK WINDS WILL LIMIT THE FIRE RISK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A WETTING RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 70 88 71 91 / 0 10 0 0
VICTORIA 65 87 69 91 / 0 40 0 10
LAREDO 69 93 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 66 92 68 95 / 0 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 73 87 75 89 / 10 30 10 10
COTULLA 68 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 67 91 68 93 / 0 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 76 85 77 86 / 10 20 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82
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