681
FXUS64 KCRP 170535
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND FRIDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TWO FEATURES IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS
TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE
INCREASED POPS JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY, BUT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS.
WILL HAVE AROUND 30% THOUGH FOR FAR AREAS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. WITH
A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW/MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER HALF AN INCH ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES (BOTH MAX AND
MIN) WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TURNING TO THE COLD FRONT... STILL NOT ESPECIALLY EXCITED ABOUT IT,
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON GETTING A WIND SHIFT
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. OVERALL THINKING HAS
NOT CHANGED THOUGH. EXPECT A DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS AS MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT SETS IN AND IS ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, WILL NOT SEE AN IMPROVEMENT. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS THOUGH, AND CURRENTLY
HAVE UPPER 50S IN THE VICTORIA AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
BACK THE MOISTURE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY TO BRING US BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FOG FOR ALI AND VCT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (11Z-
14Z). OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
BY MIDDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS SO
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 LINES FOR LIGHT RAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE COAST ON SUNDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO BE MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AT MODERATE STRENGTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY NORTH OF PORT
ARANSAS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35% THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING LOWER RH VALUES
FOR INLAND AREAS, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK,
PRECLUDING ANY INCREASED FIRE CONCERN. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. BEYOND FRIDAY, RAIN
CHANCES ARE BELOW 20% THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 73 92 72 / 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 88 70 92 68 / 20 0 10 10
LAREDO 94 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 92 69 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 87 75 89 73 / 20 10 0 0
COTULLA 94 70 97 70 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 90 70 93 69 / 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 85 77 87 76 / 10 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...LS/77
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