650
FXUS64 KCRP 010535
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1235 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A FAIRLY POTENT MID-LVL VORT LOBE WILL PIVOT S-SEWRD THROUGH TEXAS
TODAY, DRIVING WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER FAR SOUTH
TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MID-LVL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN THE SURFACE LOW LARGELY TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA, WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD/INLAND EXTENT OF ANY PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
RETURN AND LARGELY CONFINE ANY APPRECIABLE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND GULF WATERS. DESPITE THIS LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE, MODEST MID-LVL HEIGHT FALLS (~3DAM) COMBINED WITH LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT (ENHANCED BY A WEAK SEA-BREEZE)
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY 5PM-
MIDNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS BEING OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED MEAGER INSTABILITY (SBCAPE GENERALLY
PEAKING AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG NEAR THE COAST), DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
EXCEED 40-50KTS AS STRONG NWRLY WINDS ALOFT LIE OVERTOP LIGHT SERLY
LOW-LVL WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
PREFRONTAL ~3-5 SUPERCELL COMPOSITE PARAMETER VALUES FOCUSED ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND GULF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
THREAT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION HAS LEAD THE SPC TO
PLACE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. BESIDES THE USUAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT, SUB 11K FT.
WBZ HEIGHTS AND 7-7.5 C/KM 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS (WITH AN EVEN GREATER
THREAT OF SMALL HAIL). THE STRONG MID-LVL FLOW AND RAPIDLY
PROGRESSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP STORMS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS.
RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND MID-LVL HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR-NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THE
PERIOD AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST INLAND AREAS, WITH 50S EXPECTED
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HEADING INTO THE WORKWEEK THE SURFACE HIGH
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST, RESULTING IN THE LOW-
LVL FLOW VEERING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMING
TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (I.E. GENERALLY MID 80S TO LOWER 90S) BY MID-LATE WEEK. THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE
TRENDING MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BY EVENING AHEAD OF A PASSING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED THIS CYCLE FOR
OUR EASTERN TERMINALS (ALI, CRP, VCT) TO INDICATE THE LOW CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY UNTIL ROUGHLY 06Z.
LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS AND HIGHER WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND ANY STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
GENTLE SERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL BECOME STRONG AND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS QUICKLY
DECREASE TO MODERATE AND THEN GENTLE LVLS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A MEDIUM-HIGH (50-75%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY-ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH MINRHS
GENERALLY BELOW 30% SUNDAY AND MONDAY APART FROM COASTAL AREAS WHICH
WILL BENEFIT FROM THE FLOW HAVING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15MPH, ERC VALUES NEAR THE 75-90TH
PERCENTILE COMBINED WITH THE LOW RHS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO START THE
WORKWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 82 56 76 53 / 30 40 0 0
VICTORIA 78 48 75 44 / 40 20 0 0
LAREDO 87 56 79 54 / 10 10 0 0
ALICE 85 53 78 47 / 30 30 0 0
ROCKPORT 80 58 75 58 / 30 40 0 0
COTULLA 83 52 78 49 / 20 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 85 55 77 48 / 30 40 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 80 63 74 64 / 30 50 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...NC/91
AVIATION...KRS/98
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