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FXUS64 KCRP 020209
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
909 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 907 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
MUCH OF WHAT WAS DISCUSSED FROM THIS MORNING (SEE BELOW) REMAINS
VALID FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STORMS INITIALLY START FIRING UP
AND MOVING THROUGH THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FROM 5PM, WITH STORMS
INITIATING NEAR THE I-37 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO 7PM. THESE STORMS WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST. WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE, THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL (IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH) REMAINS PREVALENT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL POSSIBLE.
FOR THIS REASON, SPC HAS UPGRADED THE COASTAL PLAINS TO A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) EXTENDING
OUT TO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MOST
STORM ACTIVITY EITHER MOVES OFFSHORE OUR SOUTH OF KLEBERG COUNTY
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN AT CRP AND VCT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLL THROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VARIABLE AND
STRONG WINDS CAN BE SEEN WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THAN
LIGHT, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
GENTLE SERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME STRONG AND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH- NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS QUICKLY
DECREASE TO MODERATE AND THEN GENTLE LVLS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A MEDIUM-HIGH (50-75%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY-ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH MINRHS
GENERALLY BELOW 30% SUNDAY AND MONDAY APART FROM COASTAL AREAS WHICH
WILL BENEFIT FROM THE FLOW HAVING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15MPH, ERC VALUES NEAR THE 75-90TH
PERCENTILE COMBINED WITH THE LOW RHS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO START THE
WORKWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 57 76 53 79 / 50 0 0 0
VICTORIA 48 76 44 78 / 30 0 0 0
LAREDO 57 79 54 83 / 20 0 0 0
ALICE 53 78 48 82 / 30 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 58 76 60 77 / 40 0 0 0
COTULLA 52 78 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 55 78 49 80 / 40 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 63 74 65 76 / 70 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...JCP/84
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