834
FXUS64 KCRP 061844
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- FLIRTING RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S
- SEVERAL IMPACTFUL HAZARDS BEFORE AND AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING: FOG, POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING, FIRE, MARINE,
AND COLD
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT
MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH
RECORDS, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING ONLY A VERY LOW (<10%) CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BRIEFLY WITH THE PASSAGE WITHIN
THE SHORT TIME WINDOW MOISTURE IS AROUND NORMAL AND HAS ENOUGH LIFT.
MULTIPLE IMPACTFUL HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLAY BEFORE AND AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING:
- BEFORE (POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING & FOG): DUE TO THE
FULL MOON AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS, WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR BEACH CONDITIONS ON POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
LEADING UP TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL EACH EVENING'S HIGH TIDE
THROUGH SATURDAY. P- ETSS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW WATER LEVELS
NEARING 2.0 FT MSL AT ARANSAS PASS, BUT NGOFS DOES NOT.
LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE NOT AS PERSISTENTLY LONG SWELL PERIODS
OVER 8 SECONDS AND NOT AS DIRECTLY ONSHORE FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
- AFTER (FIRE, MARINE, COLD): STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT, LOOKING AT SUSTAINED OF 20-25 MPH INLAND ON SUNDAY
AND OVER 30 MPH OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A SHORTER-
FUSED GALE WATCH/WARNING WHEN WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST AND
FREQUENTLY GUSTING OVER 35 KNOTS. OVER LAND, THE STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20-40%, RESULTING IN
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30% EACH
AFTERNOON BUT WINDS DIMINISH. COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALONG WITH
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, WILL PROMOTE 15- 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL LOWS EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. WE'RE
LOOKING AT A 50-80% CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY
REACHING THE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF INLAND SOUTH TEXAS.
A WARMING TREND RETURNS TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. I'M NOT AS CONVINCED WITH
WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THIS
MORNING, DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS. HOWEVER, I DO THINK THERE
WILL BE DROPS AT FOG PRONE SITES OF ALI/VCT BETWEEN 09-14Z. THEN
THE TYPICAL GROUND FOG, OCCASIONALLY TALLER OVER THE RUNWAYS AT
CRP. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOLLOWING BY 15Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME A GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE (BF 3-4) OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE (BF 6-7)
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY TO 10-15
FEET. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 7 FEET AND WINDS DIMINISHING
BELOW 20 KNOTS. GENERALLY, MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING,
CREATING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT, WILL CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE FIRE WEATHER RISK. ALTHOUGH WINDS
DECREASE DURING THE WORK WEEK, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE TEENS (MON) AND 20S (TUE-WED), KEEPING AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTACT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK EACH AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
(ERC) VALUES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH, RANGING FROM THE 80-95TH
PERCENTILE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER,
WITH STILL WARRANTED ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOLLOWING INTO MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 62 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 59 89 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 62 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 59 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 67 83 69 84 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 59 94 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 59 92 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 69 82 70 83 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...EMF/94
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