377
FXUS64 KCRP 211103
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
503 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 458 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH GREATER
CHANCES AND FOCUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTH TEXAS.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS TEXAS THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD BEFORE LOSING MOMENTUM AND STALLING JUST NORTH
OF OUR CWA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY FORMS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEVADA INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO, WHICH IS SUPPORTING STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
TRANSPORTING DEEP SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE EASTWARD. AS A
RESULT, PWATS ACROSS OUR REGION ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
1.5- 1.8 INCH RANGE, CREATING A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY AND
LIFT WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED, WHICH WILL RESTRICT
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY AND REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVY/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL LOCALLY. THE MORE ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST,
WHERE PERSISTENT TRAINING OF STORMS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED NOTABLE
ACCUMULATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY EARLIER THURSDAY. MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS CAN EXPECT RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.25-1.00 INCH, WITH THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS MOST LIKELY
TO SEE THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MAY BRIEFLY REINFORCE MOISTURE AND LIFT, BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT MORE SUBSTANTIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND SYSTEM APPEARS TO CARRY A STRONGER
PACIFIC FRONT, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A QUICKER END TO
PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO THE CURRENT SETUP.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A MORE
NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN IS ANTICIPATED BY MID- TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, SIGNALING A SHIFT TOWARD A MORE SEASONAL PATTERN
HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 458 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY HAVE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS, BUT EXPECT THAT
CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO MVFR/IFR AROUND SUNRISE. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
LOW. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTH-SOUTHEASERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO
STRONG (BF 5-6) EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY ABOVE 40% ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WEAKENED FRONT
LINGERING NEARBY, LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO
10-15 MPH AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30-35% ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 MPH
SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 70 83 70 / 10 40 60 20
VICTORIA 87 65 82 60 / 30 50 30 10
LAREDO 88 71 85 70 / 10 30 40 40
ALICE 90 66 85 66 / 20 40 60 30
ROCKPORT 84 71 82 69 / 20 40 50 20
COTULLA 85 66 81 66 / 20 30 40 40
KINGSVILLE 90 69 85 68 / 20 30 50 20
NAVY CORPUS 83 73 81 73 / 10 40 60 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77
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