353
FXUS64 KCRP 212336
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
536 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH GREATER
CHANCES AND FOCUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTH TEXAS.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES OF 1.6-1.8") POOLED AHEAD OF THE STALLED COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF MONDAY. ALTHOUGH RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH MEDIUM CHANCES, BENEFICIAL RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THE MID-
LEVELS. THEREFORE, MOST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT LESS THAN 0.50" OF
RAIN WITH ONLY THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS IN PLAY TO GET UP TO AN INCH
THROUGH SUNDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE TO BREAK THIS STRETCH OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, AND WEAKENING MIXING PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. SEVERAL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
MVFR/IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK, WITH POCKETS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ALL SITES HAVE PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT CIG AND VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM -SHRA OR ISOLATED TSRA,
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF DENSER FOG FOR ALI AND VCT. BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING MAINTAIN ADDITIONAL
INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WHILE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD HIGHER-END MVFR OR VFR IS ANTICIPATED
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT SOME LOCATIONS,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING
CONVECTION AND SATURATED LOWER LEVELS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6)
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY ABOVE 40% ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WEAKENED FRONT
LINGERING NEARBY, LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO 10-15 MPH AHEAD
OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
FRONT, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30-
35% ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER,
LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 MPH SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MINIMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 83 69 82 / 50 60 30 30
VICTORIA 64 81 59 80 / 60 50 10 20
LAREDO 70 84 70 87 / 30 70 50 40
ALICE 67 83 65 83 / 50 60 30 40
ROCKPORT 70 81 68 80 / 50 60 20 30
COTULLA 66 81 65 81 / 40 60 50 50
KINGSVILLE 68 84 67 84 / 40 70 30 40
NAVY CORPUS 72 81 72 80 / 50 60 40 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...KRS/98
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