494
FXUS64 KCRP 220603
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1203 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1128 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY ALONG A WEAK FRONT.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT EPISODES OF LIGHT RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND,
PWATS NEAR 1.6-1.8 INCHES WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MODERATE (30-60%)
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH LIMITED MID-LEVEL LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY UNDER 0.50 INCH,
WITH THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING AN INCH.
ON SUNDAY, THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WAS A WARM FRONT AS MID-
LEVEL RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SHORT-LIVED
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH EMERGING FROM
THE ROCKIES SENDS THE NEXT COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BOOST MOISTURE ONCE
AGAIN, WITH PWATS CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE BY LATE
SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A STRENGTHENING LLJ LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL PROVIDE IMPROVED FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ITS
TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW IT BRIEFLY
STALLING NEAR THE COAST BEFORE A SECOND, STRONGER FRONT SURGES
SOUTHWARD BY MIDWEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE INITIAL BOUNDARY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS INTO MID-40S TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, AND REDUCED MIXING PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS. SEVERAL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR
TOWARD DAYBREAK, WITH POCKETS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
HAVE PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CIG AND VSBY
REDUCTIONS FROM -SHRA OR ISOLATED TSRA, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF DENSER
FOG FOR ALI AND VCT. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WINDS
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK
FORCING WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL INTERMITTENT -SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. WHILE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD HIGHER-END MVFR
OR VFR IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT
SOME LOCATIONS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING CONVECTION AND SATURATED LOWER LEVELS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN
CHANCES STICK AROUND INTO TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PASS. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK AFTER BEING
REINFORCED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING FLOW TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) ONCE
AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY ABOVE 40% ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WEAKENED FRONT
LINGERING NEARBY, LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY TO 10-15 MPH DUE TO AN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT
SURGES SOUTHWARD. IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT, MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30-35% ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, LIGHTER WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 MPH SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 69 82 68 / 10 30 40 30
VICTORIA 87 64 81 58 / 30 60 40 10
LAREDO 88 70 84 69 / 10 10 30 40
ALICE 90 67 84 65 / 20 30 50 30
ROCKPORT 84 70 82 68 / 20 40 60 20
COTULLA 85 66 81 63 / 20 30 40 30
KINGSVILLE 90 68 84 66 / 20 30 40 30
NAVY CORPUS 83 72 80 72 / 10 20 50 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77
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