669
FXUS64 KCRP 221119
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
519 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 511 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY ALONG A WEAK FRONT.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT EPISODES OF LIGHT RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND,
PWATS NEAR 1.6-1.8 INCHES WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MODERATE (30-60%)
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH LIMITED MID-LEVEL LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY UNDER 0.50 INCH,
WITH THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING AN INCH.
ON SUNDAY, THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WAS A WARM FRONT AS MID-
LEVEL RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SHORT-LIVED
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH EMERGING FROM
THE ROCKIES SENDS THE NEXT COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BOOST MOISTURE ONCE
AGAIN, WITH PWATS CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE BY LATE
SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A STRENGTHENING LLJ LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL PROVIDE IMPROVED FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ITS
TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW IT BRIEFLY
STALLING NEAR THE COAST BEFORE A SECOND, STRONGER FRONT SURGES
SOUTHWARD BY MIDWEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE INITIAL BOUNDARY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS INTO MID-40S TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
A MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA IS STILL
TRYING TO SLIDE SOUTH TODAY THOUGH IT IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN
CHANCES STICK AROUND INTO TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PASS. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK AFTER BEING
REINFORCED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING FLOW TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) ONCE
AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY ABOVE 40% ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WEAKENED FRONT
LINGERING NEARBY, LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY TO 10-15 MPH DUE TO AN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT
SURGES SOUTHWARD. IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT, MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30-35% ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, LIGHTER WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 MPH SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 82 68 81 71 / 40 30 30 10
VICTORIA 81 58 80 65 / 50 10 10 10
LAREDO 84 69 85 71 / 30 40 40 0
ALICE 84 65 83 68 / 50 30 30 0
ROCKPORT 82 68 80 72 / 60 20 20 10
COTULLA 81 63 81 69 / 40 30 30 10
KINGSVILLE 84 66 83 69 / 40 30 30 0
NAVY CORPUS 80 72 80 74 / 50 40 30 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77
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