594
FXUS64 KCRP 221816
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1216 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, LOWER CHANCE MONDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SITUATED JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
BRUSH COUNTRY. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT DOESN'T LOOK TO HAVE MUCH MORE STRENGTH
AND WILL NOT BRING ANY NOTICEABLE CHANGE. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, ONSHORE FLOW WILL PICK UP AND PUSH EVERYTHING BACK NORTH
WITH AN ADVANCING WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RECORDS ARE UNLIKELY
TO BE BROKEN, BUT WE'LL APPROACH THEM (UPPER 80S) FOR VCT AND CRP.
THE BIG CHANGE COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WELL
ADVERTISED FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ENSEMBLE SPREADS GENERALLY BETWEEN 65 AND 75 DEGREES AREA WIDE
BOTH DAYS. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER, THE DEEPER DRY AIR
REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND WILL KEEP THE COLDER TEMPS THERE.
OUR LOW TEMPS FOR THURSDAY MORNING COULD CALL INTO THE 40S FOR
INLAND AREAS, BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S OTHERWISE.
AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES, WE'RE NOT ENDING THE DROUGHT ANYTIME
SOON. WHILE WE'LL KEEP LOW END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND THEN
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES NORTH MONDAY (SHORTWAVE), RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (UNDER HALF AN INCH). WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT AGAIN, NOTHING NOTABLE IN EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL IMPACT MAINLY CRP/ALI
TERMINALS TODAY WITH LOWER CHANCES AT OTHER SITES. WHILE HAVE NO
MENTION FOR VCT, A BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL HAVE CONVECTION TO THE EAST. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A "HIGHER
CONFIDENCE" COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH ALL TAFS AND WHILE
IT IS NOTED IN MOST LIKELY TIMES, WITH A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AND BOUNDARIES/WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE AREA, THERE'S A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF CONVECTION AT ANY SITE ANY TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH
WITHIN SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY SEE LOWER CIGS. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.THE NEXT
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK TURNING WINDS TO
THE NORTH- NORTHEAST AND INCREASING FLOW TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF
5-6) ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST - FIRST,
ON MONDAY WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COULD FRONT,
THEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW. MIN RH WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT AT THIS
TIME DOESN'T REACH CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 80 71 85 / 30 40 10 10
VICTORIA 59 80 66 84 / 0 10 10 50
LAREDO 69 85 71 85 / 50 30 10 10
ALICE 64 82 68 88 / 30 40 10 10
ROCKPORT 67 80 72 84 / 20 30 10 20
COTULLA 64 80 69 84 / 30 40 20 30
KINGSVILLE 66 82 69 87 / 40 40 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 72 80 75 82 / 40 40 10 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...PH/83
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page