460
FXUS64 KCRP 240534
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1134 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
- ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
A BRIEF LULL IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXITS THE REGION. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL DRAW HIGHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY NORTH OF US AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA, PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAY STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
BY MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION, USHERING IN DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS. WE'LL SEE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS BY MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY
FOLLOWING A REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SECONDARY FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING, WITH
MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID-40S TO THE 50S AND HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES FRIDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN. FOR NOW, POPS REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH
TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS FIRST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR NOW, BUT EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 8-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE WEST. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE TO MID-
MORNING MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS MONDAY SO
HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
TSRA AND THE ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY MONDAY BEFORE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG (BF 6) GUSTS, WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THESE CONDITIONS HAVE WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL EASE ON TUESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT
TO GENTLE (BF 2-3), BEFORE A STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN BACK TO MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) WITH
INTERMITTENT STRONG (BF 6) GUSTS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH FRIDAY, AFTER WHICH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RENEWED ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG WITH
FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD,
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY HOLDING ABOVE 40% ACROSS THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY TO AROUND 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH, AS
AN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INFLUENCE THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT BY MIDWEEK, MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 20-35% ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER,
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES IN THE 20-50TH PERCENTILE
COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS POST-FRONT SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT BAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 72 85 68 / 50 0 10 10
VICTORIA 78 67 85 64 / 20 10 30 30
LAREDO 87 72 86 63 / 30 0 0 0
ALICE 82 67 90 64 / 50 0 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 72 84 70 / 50 10 20 10
COTULLA 79 69 83 57 / 40 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 81 69 89 66 / 50 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 80 75 82 72 / 60 0 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ231-
232-250-270.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ236-237-255-
275.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77
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