257
FXUS64 KCRP 241834
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- COLD FRONT SHOWER ACTIVITY (30-40% CHANCE) WILL GRAZE THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TONIGHT.
- PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE COASTAL BEND AS
WE SPEAK. ALONG THIS, CAMS ARE SHOWING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONGSIDE IT WITH THE TAIL END OF ACTIVITY NEAR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA TONIGHT. CAMS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING MOST ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THE
CWA, ONLY BRINGING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS INTO VICTORIA COUNTY
BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST, IT WILL STALL OUT. WITH THIS AND WEAK
WINDS AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS MODERATE CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL PLAINS (30-50%). CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH FOR ANY DENSE FOG PRODUCTS, BUT IT'LL BE WORTH MONITORING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING'S MODEL GUIDANCE FOR VISIBILITIES
LOWER THAN A 1/2 MILE.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH MORE MOMENTUM THAN THE INITIAL FRONT
WILL ALLOW THE DRIER, COOLER AIR TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. IT WILL
BE WORTH MONITORING WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND THE TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY FRONT PASSAGE AS THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT'S RAIN CHANCES. SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT, A JUICY
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARM TEMPS WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 12Z HRRR HAS THIS INSTABILITY GRADIENT
SETTING UP SOUTH OF FALFURRIAS, WHILE THE 06Z RRFS HAS THE STALLED
FRONT FURTHER NORTH INTO KLEBERG COUNTY. STORMS WILL HAVE 40-60KT
SHEAR TO WORK WITH, SO DON'T QUITE DISCOUNT TOMORROW'S THREAT,
ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT STALLS OUT FURTHER NORTH. AT MOST, THESE
FORECAST STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK DOWNPOUR AND GUSTY
WINDS (GENERALLY UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS).
ONCE THAT SECONDARY FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND USHERS IN DRIER AIR,
WE'LL FINALLY HAVE THE MUCH AWAITED COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING IN THE 70S ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
MORNING LOWS ON THANKSGIVING MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A GOOD TIME TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE COOLER
TEMPS AND OPEN UP THE WINDOW TO COOL DOWN THE KITCHEN!
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COMES THIS WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON SATURDAY, BUT WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL (<0.25" FOR A 24HR PERIOD) FROM THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS (20-30% CHANCE). CONFIDENCE
RIGHT NOW FOR THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF OVERALL RAINFALL REMAINS
LOW. AS MORE MODEL GUIDANCE COMES THROUGH, WE'LL HAVE A BETTER
IDEA OF HOW THIS NEXT RAIN OPPORTUNITY PLAYS OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
MOST OF THIS MORNING'S SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR KVCT HAS PUSHED OFF
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS LOOKING TO
BE SHOWER-FREE. MEANWHILE, A COLD-FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH 30-40% CHANCE OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF KVCT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW. THIS MAY BRIEFLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 06Z,
WHILE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE SHIFTING TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
AND DIMINISHING TO 5KT, DRIER AIR DOES NOT FILTER IN AS QUICKLY
RESULTING A MOIST SURFACE LAYER LEADING TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS LOW AT THE MOMENT BUT
WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE EVENING MODEL RUNS CAPTURE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES TUESDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
BROUGHT BY VSBY WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG (BF 6) GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH 3 PM NORTH
OF PORT ARANSAS AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT S OF PORT ARANSAS. WINDS
WILL EASE ON TUESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3), BEFORE A
STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN
BACK TO MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) WITH INTERMITTENT STRONG (BF 6)
GUSTS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY, AFTER
WHICH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RENEWED
ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG WITH FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6)
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DO BRIEFLY DROP TO THE 25-35%
RANGE ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND THE REGION OVERALL REMAINS
ABOVE 30-40% MIN RH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE DRIER AIR, ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS REMAIN LOW
(BELOW THE 35TH PERCENTILE) THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK KEEPING THE
FIRE RISK LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 67 85 60 / 10 10 10 30
VICTORIA 85 62 85 52 / 30 40 0 10
LAREDO 86 62 87 62 / 0 0 10 30
ALICE 90 63 88 57 / 10 10 10 30
ROCKPORT 84 70 84 60 / 20 20 10 20
COTULLA 83 56 86 56 / 10 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 89 65 87 60 / 0 10 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 82 72 82 64 / 20 10 10 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ231-232-
250-270.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ236-
237-255-275.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82
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