030
FXUS64 KCRP 242104 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
304 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 304 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- COLD FRONT SHOWER ACTIVITY (30-40% CHANCE) WILL GRAZE THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TONIGHT.
- PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
MOST OF THIS MORNING'S SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR KVCT HAS PUSHED OFF
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS LOOKING TO
BE SHOWER-FREE. MEANWHILE, A COLD-FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH 30-40% CHANCE OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF KVCT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW. THIS MAY BRIEFLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 06Z,
WHILE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE SHIFTING TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
AND DIMINISHING TO 5KT, DRIER AIR DOES NOT FILTER IN AS QUICKLY
RESULTING A MOIST SURFACE LAYER LEADING TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS LOW AT THE MOMENT BUT
WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE EVENING MODEL RUNS CAPTURE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES TUESDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
BROUGHT BY VSBY WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG (BF 6) GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH 3 PM NORTH
OF PORT ARANSAS AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT S OF PORT ARANSAS. WINDS
WILL EASE ON TUESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3), BEFORE A
STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN
BACK TO MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) WITH INTERMITTENT STRONG (BF 6)
GUSTS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY, AFTER
WHICH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RENEWED
ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG WITH FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6)
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DO BRIEFLY DROP TO THE 25-35%
RANGE ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND THE REGION OVERALL REMAINS
ABOVE 30-40% MIN RH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE DRIER AIR, ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS REMAIN LOW
(BELOW THE 35TH PERCENTILE) THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK KEEPING THE
FIRE RISK LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 85 60 71 / 10 10 30 10
VICTORIA 62 85 52 72 / 40 0 10 0
LAREDO 62 87 62 73 / 0 10 30 20
ALICE 63 88 57 73 / 10 10 30 10
ROCKPORT 70 84 60 73 / 20 10 20 10
COTULLA 56 86 56 73 / 0 0 10 0
KINGSVILLE 65 87 60 71 / 10 10 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 72 82 64 71 / 10 10 30 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ231-232-
250-270.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82
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