571
FXUS64 KCRP 280002
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
602 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING, COLDEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CONCLUDE THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A TEMPORARY WARM UP WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES PUMPING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT BIG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION BRING TEMPERATURES TO BRISK AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
50S AND 60S IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MUCH OF
THE REGION MIGHT STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES WITH LOWS
PLUMMETING INTO THE 30S THANKS TO PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED. A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
COMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
CONDITIONS WARM UP WEDNESDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
A 4-6KFT CLOUD DECK SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VCT. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL, WE'LL
SEE MVFR CIGS RETURN OVER LRD/COT TONIGHT AND STRUGGLE TO IMPROVE
TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY, INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR LRD/COT, LESS CONFIDENT EASTWARD. WEAK EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY AND
STRENGTHEN BY MIDDAY, WITH SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25-30
KNOTS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES OF 2-5KFT WILL LIKELY BLANKET
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY, LOWEST CIGS WEST NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE RESTRENGTHENING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING, CAUSING A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL GO INTO EFFECT 12Z FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH THE BAYS BEING INCLUDED AROUND 18Z. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, LEADING TO
STRONG TO NEAR GALE (BF 6-7) NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE, DIMINISHING TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY WILL INCREASE TO A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE OF 50-80% SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DECREASE TO
A LOW CHANCE TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30% INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 61 74 68 81 / 0 20 30 30
VICTORIA 48 73 61 80 / 0 10 40 60
LAREDO 62 74 67 82 / 10 30 10 0
ALICE 56 75 63 84 / 0 20 20 20
ROCKPORT 61 76 68 80 / 0 10 40 40
COTULLA 57 71 64 81 / 10 30 30 0
KINGSVILLE 59 75 66 83 / 0 20 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 67 75 71 80 / 0 20 40 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
GMZ231-232-236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
GMZ250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...EMF/94
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