229
FXUS64 KCRP 120027 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
627 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FOGGY NIGHT IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON, A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM CST
FRIDAY. LOCATIONS IN WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES MAY SEE REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY A BIT LATER THAN THE OTHER COUNTIES (MOST LIKELY BY
3 AM CST FRIDAY).
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
- GRADUAL WARM-UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE INLAND AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF SUNDAY COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
THE REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND YESTERDAY'S WEAK
FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL
WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE. THIS WILL INITIATE WWA AND CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A STEADY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE RETURN OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BEGINNING TONIGHT.
THIS WILL INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF LIGHT WINDS AND
RELATIVELY COOL SHELF WATERS PERSIST, SEA FOG WILL ALSO BE A
STRONG POSSIBILITY OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY THE CASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHEN
MOISTURE POOLING AND WEAKER WINDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD FORMATION.
SPEAKING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE
REGARDING ITS TIMING FOR SUNDAY AND ITS STRENGTH, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-60%) RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH ITSELF EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT PROPAGATES EAST, LEADING ONCE
AGAIN TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AS
WELL AS LOW RAIN CHANCES (~20%) ALONG THE COAST BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING TO MVFR
AND IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT BEFORE RECOVERING BACK TO VFR LATE TOMORROW
MORNING. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IS HIGH, WITH
MOST SITES LIKELY TO SEE DENSE FOG. WHILE CHANCES FOR FOG ARE
HIGH, THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION ARE STILL A LITTLE
FOGGY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SITES. AS THE SUN RISES TOMORROW MORNING, THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (BF 3-4) WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN ELEVATED MOISTURE, SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF FOG
BEING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
NEXT TO NONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK BEFORE A LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-60%) OF RAIN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE WAKE OF OUR NEXT FRONT ON SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN TO BECOME FRESH
TO STRONG (BF 5-6). THIS WIND SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE LEVELS (BF
3-4) AND ONCE AGAIN SHIFTING INTO AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30% THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY RESULTS IN
ELEVATED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO
25-30 MPH. HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM OUR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND ERCS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 25-50TH PERCENTILE,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 57 78 65 79 / 0 0 10 20
VICTORIA 52 77 60 78 / 0 0 10 30
LAREDO 56 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 54 80 61 81 / 0 0 10 20
ROCKPORT 59 74 63 75 / 0 0 20 30
COTULLA 49 77 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 56 80 64 81 / 0 0 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 62 74 67 74 / 0 0 20 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...JCP/84
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