451
FXUS64 KCRP 122326
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
526 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- GRADUAL WARM-UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY.
- DENSE FOG EXPECTED INLAND AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF SUNDAY COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
PREVAILING ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR
STEADY CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. ADDITIONALLY, THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. IF LIGHT
WINDS AND RELATIVELY COOL SHELF WATERS PERSIST, SEA FOG WILL ALSO BE
A STRONG POSSIBILITY OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEXT TO NONE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. HOWEVER, BY THEN, THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO POOL AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-60%) RAIN CHANCES AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
COAST BEFORE CHANCES GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND BY SUNDAY.
NOTICEABLY COOLER, DRIER, AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT PROPAGATES EAST, LEADING ONCE AGAIN TO AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BY TUESDAY. BY THIS TIME,
WE'LL ALSO NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. ADDITIONALLY WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
MORE FOG BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE FOG BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 05/06Z. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST SITES DUE TO DENSE FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT
RETURNING UNTIL AROUND 16-18Z. OTHER THAN THAT, LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE (BF 2-4) SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN ELEVATED
MOISTURE, SEA FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF FOG BEING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1NM IS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEXT TO
NONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY BEFORE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
(20-60%) OF RAIN RETURNS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN THE WAKE OF OUR NEXT FRONT ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6).
THIS WIND SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING
BACK DOWN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE LEVELS (BF 3-4) AND ONCE AGAIN
SHIFTING INTO AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30% THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY RESULTS IN ELEVATED NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH. HOWEVER,
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM OUR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND ERCS GENERALLY REMAINING IN
THE 25-50TH PERCENTILE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 79 63 71 / 20 20 20 40
VICTORIA 61 78 57 66 / 10 30 20 20
LAREDO 62 81 63 71 / 0 0 0 60
ALICE 63 82 60 70 / 10 10 10 40
ROCKPORT 63 74 61 69 / 20 30 20 30
COTULLA 60 79 59 67 / 10 0 10 30
KINGSVILLE 64 81 63 73 / 10 20 10 40
NAVY CORPUS 67 74 64 70 / 20 30 20 50
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...JCP/84
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