368
FXUS64 KCRP 161846
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE COASTAL PLAINS;
30-50% ELSEWHERE.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING MAX LEVELS. SEASONAL
AVERAGE IS AROUND 0.8" WITH MAX AROUND 1.8"; THE FORECAST IS FOR
1.5-1.8 TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COMBINE THIS WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, AND RAIN CHANCES ARE AS HIGH AS
70-80% IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS SOME
AREAS COULD TOP AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 2"/HOUR COULD LEAD TO QUICK PONDING ON ROADS,
MAINLY OVER URBAN AREAS, BUT FLASH FLOODING RISK IS LIMITED.
WHILE MOSTLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
SEVERAL RUNS OF FORECAST MODELS HAVE PUSHED IT THROUGH THE AREA,
THUS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE DRY,
TEMPERATURES BEHIND WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS (AFTER
80S ON THURSDAY). THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST LONG
THOUGH AS WE'LL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY FOR VCT, CRP AND ALI TAF SITES. WHILE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SHOWERS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR VCT/CRP. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LOW (MVFR TO
IFR) EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE (BF 3-4) WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO
AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-80%) FOR RAIN.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY AS FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE COASTAL BEND
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WEST
COULD FALL BELOW 30% THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY WEAK. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 63 71 61 79 / 60 70 10 0
VICTORIA 58 72 59 79 / 50 70 10 0
LAREDO 57 74 55 83 / 20 10 0 0
ALICE 58 73 58 82 / 60 60 0 0
ROCKPORT 61 70 61 75 / 60 80 10 0
COTULLA 55 73 53 83 / 40 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 61 73 60 81 / 60 70 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 65 70 64 74 / 60 80 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...PH/83
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