968
FXUS64 KCRP 171118
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
518 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- RAINFALL TODAY WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS (THRU WEDNESDAY PM) OF
0.5" OR LESS WEST OF US HWY 281, WITH COASTAL ZONES SEEING 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
- RAINFALL RATES IN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO 1-3"/HR
RAINFALL RATES (PRIMARILY ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES).
- COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY DROPPING TEMPS TO MORE SEASONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WHILE REMAINING DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RETURN OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON
CHRISTMAS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS BROUGHT ON BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH TEXAS. FORECAST PWATS WILL MAX OUT BETWEEN 1.7-1.8"
(PLACING THIS JUICY ATMOSPHERE IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE IN KCRP'S
CLIMATOLOGY. WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SET UP ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF, THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS OF CONTINUOUS SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND CONTINUING THE STREAM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT, MID-
LEVELS COOL FROM NOW THROUGH SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW CAPE TO
INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL BEND LEADING TO ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
STORMS, IN ADDITION TO PVA MOVING INTO THE REGION, FURTHER
ENHANCING SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS AT
PLAY, CAMS HAVE SHOWED CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM-LIKE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS/RATES (1-3"). AS SUCH, I BLENDED IN THE HRRR'S AND NBM QPF
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE GREATEST TOTALS
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF THESE
COASTAL PLAINS THAT STILL HAVE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN
DAY BACK ON NOV 24TH (PER THE LATEST CREST SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS
WHICH SHOW THE REGION BETWEEN PORTLAND AND ROCKPORT HAVING 40-70%
SOIL MOISTURE). THESE WILL BE AREAS THAT WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO PONDING AND LOW-LYING FLOODING, BUT THE RISK OF THIS IS LOW,
BUT NOT ZERO. MOST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY 5 PM.
THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS WITH INITIALLY
JUST A WIND SHIFT, BUT A MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING'S LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREE COLDER THAN THURSDAY MORNING'S LOW. FRIDAY'S
NEAR NORMAL DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IS LOOKING TO BE A BEAUTIFUL
DAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS (INSERT SUNGLASSES EMOJI HERE). BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ALLOWING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES TO CREEP
BACK UP. WE REMAIN UNDER RIDGE INFLUENCE INTO CHRISTMAS WEEK,
KEEPING A LID ON RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING OUR TEMPS TO ABOVE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
PERSISTENT RAIN AND MIST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR ALI, CRP AND VCT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO RAIN AND FOG.
THERE IS A MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LRD AND COT WILL CONTINUE AT IFR/LIFR LEVELS THIS
MORNING, MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON FOR COT AND LRD.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS FOR ALI, CRP AND VCT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS S TX
OVERNIGHT DUE TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WITH 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO MOSTLY FRESH (BF 5) AND SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6
FT. CONDITIONS START IMPROVING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND SURFACE WINDS
RETURN TO AT GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERALLY WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY AND ENDING
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30% TODAY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, THE FIRE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL DRY OUT LOW-
LEVELS LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 24-30% ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON THURSDAY, AND THEN SPREADING THESE LOW RH
RANGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE,
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE 50TH
PERCENTILE, REDUCING THE FIRE RISK. BY THE WEEKEND, GULF MOISTURE
RETURNS LEADING TO MIN RH'S TO CLIMB ABOVE 30% THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 71 61 78 51 / 90 10 0 0
VICTORIA 71 59 79 44 / 80 10 0 0
LAREDO 72 55 82 50 / 10 0 0 0
ALICE 72 59 81 48 / 70 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 69 60 75 52 / 90 20 0 0
COTULLA 71 55 82 46 / 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 71 60 80 50 / 80 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 63 74 57 / 80 20 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...TE/81
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