556
FXUS64 KCRP 172341
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
541 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
WITH SHOWERS WINDING DOWN FOR MOST AREAS AND WINDS CALMING DOWN
OVERNIGHT, MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO SEE VISIBILITY
VALUE'S DROP DOWN TO AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE DUE TO WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG. FOR THIS REASON AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW THIS
SCENARIO, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST ZONES
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND COASTAL ZONES) FROM
3AM TO 10 AM THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, BUT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE COASTAL BEND
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST.
THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING MUCH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR TO SINK IN. BETWEEN
THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE AND SOLID ONSHORE SURFACE LOW,
WE'LL HAVE A GOOD SET UP FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
AFTER AN EXPECTED WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS A
GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
RAIN COVERAGE IS STARTING TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THAT
SAID, KALI/KCRP STILL HAS TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. FROM 03Z, FOG COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS AND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. BY THIS TIME, MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH DENSE FOG
DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO LIFR. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH 14Z WITH
VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z, TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH THE WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TAKING PLACE BY THE END OF THE
TAF CYCLE AND CLEARING SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WITH 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO MOSTLY FRESH (BF 5) AND SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6
FT. CONDITIONS START IMPROVING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND SURFACE WINDS
RETURN TO AT GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS GENERALLY WILL STAY AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY AND ENDING
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30% TODAY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, THE FIRE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL DRY OUT LOW-
LEVELS LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 24-30% ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON THURSDAY, AND THEN SPREADING THESE LOW RH
RANGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE,
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE 50TH
PERCENTILE, REDUCING THE FIRE RISK. BY THE WEEKEND, GULF MOISTURE
RETURNS LEADING TO MIN RH'S TO CLIMB ABOVE 30% THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 61 78 51 69 / 20 0 0 0
VICTORIA 58 78 44 68 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 56 83 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 58 82 48 71 / 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 60 75 52 67 / 20 0 0 0
COTULLA 55 82 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 59 81 51 71 / 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 64 74 57 67 / 20 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ229>234-239>244-246-247.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...AE/82
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