317
FXUS64 KCRP 180611
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1211 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
- COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WITH NOTICEABLE COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY MORNING (MID 40S TO LOW 50S).
- WARM AND DRY FORECAST IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST CHRISTMAS DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GOOD WITH SHOWING
THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE FOG, IT HAS STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THE PATCHY
DENSE FOG BELOW 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. FOR THAT
REASON, I WILL START THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOONER (AT 06Z) WITH NO
EXPANSION TO COASTAL ZONES/BARRIER ISLANDS AT THE MOMENT, BUT WILL
BE REEVALUATED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY MORNING'S LOWS (REACHING INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S). BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WE RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS. WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW FROM SATURDAY AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE INFLUENCE BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS IN THE UPCOMING WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AND INTO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL ALSO BE A DRY
FORECAST WITH NEAR-ZERO CHANCES OF RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
CHRISTMAS DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL KEEP IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
VFR BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR CRP ARE UNDER
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS UNTIL
WHEN WE ARE EXPECTED THE 1/4SM FG TO HANG AROUND THROUGH. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
TO 6AM FRIDAY (SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FT) WITH CONDITIONS DECREASING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN STORE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON, DROPPING DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WITH RH VALUES BRIEFLY
DROPPING AS LOW AS 25-35% ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH
COUNTRY, BUT WEAK WINDS WILL LIMIT THE FIRE RISK. MORE OF THAT DRIER
AIR SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY WITH SIMILAR LOW
MIN RH'S IN STORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STARTING SATURDAY, MIN RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30% REGION WIDE WITH WARM TEMPS AND NEAR-ZERO RAIN
CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 50 68 56 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 78 43 68 49 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 83 49 73 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 82 47 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 75 51 67 58 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 83 44 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 82 49 71 54 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 74 56 67 61 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ229>234-
239>244-246-247.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...JCP/84
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page