237
FXUS64 KCRP 021136
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
536 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- AREAS OF FOG AND SEA FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRYLINE MOVING EAST ACROSS S TX DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS COASTAL AREAS TO UPPER 80S ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
INLAND AREAS. ISLANDS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FORECASTING THE HIGHS FOR COASTAL AREAS STILL LOOKS TRICKY DUE TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE GETS BEFORE THE
SEA BREEZE PUSHES IT BACK INLAND. FOR NOW, AM EXPECTING IT TO REACH
EAST OF VICTORIA AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD, BISECTING THE CITY OF CORPUS
CHRISTI. THIS COULD LEAD TO A 10-15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS AND THE CORPUS CHRISTI AIRPORT. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE GETS
ACTIVE, IT WILL PUSH HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INLAND TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE RETURN OF NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
HOWEVER, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND HOW FAR INLAND IT ADVECTS
TO, WILL DETERMINE IF FOG DEVELOPS AT ALL AND HOW DENSE IT BECOMES
IF IT DOES DEVELOP. FOR NOW, WILL FORECAST PATCHY FOG FOR THE
COASTAL BEND. SEA FOG HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING WITH WARM
MOIST AIR OVERRIDING COOLER SHELF WATERS.
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH S TX SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND WILL TREND WARMER ONCE AGAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THEN A LOW CHANCE RETURNS TO THE COASTAL AREAS BY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
FOG HAS REMAINED SO FAR ONLY IMPACTING AREAS AROUND ALI TERMINAL,
BUT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT VCT AND CRP AROUND SUNRISE, SO HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF IFR AT THESE SITES. AFTER MID-MORNING, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT, BUT THINK DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN TO
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
A FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WEAKEN AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY, A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, THEN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY. AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
A DRY LINE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP RH VALUES BELOW 30%
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS AND ERC VALUES IN THE 50- 75TH
PERCENTILE SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER WITH RH VALUES 20-25% ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE VERY DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH ERC
VALUES 50-89TH PERCENTILE, MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 58 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 85 54 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 88 56 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 88 56 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 78 61 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 88 54 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 88 56 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 79 62 78 60 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83
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