024
FXUS64 KCRP 051131
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
531 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR ALOFT,
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THEN
ANOTHER ROUND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE
SREF, THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1SM FROM
ALICE TO BEEVILLE WESTWARD MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR AND RAP ALSO
PROG AREAS OF FOG ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
BRUSH COUNTRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DENSE THE FOG
WILL GET AND HOW WIDESPREAD, THUS WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR NOW. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, BUT SHOW THE LOWER VISIBILITIES FARTHER WEST WITH
LITTLE TO NO FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND DUE TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND TUESDAY MORNING. NEEDLESS TO
SAY, THE FOG FORECAST IS TRICKY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW, WILL
CONTINUE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL CONTINUE EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DRYNESS CONTINUES ACROSS S
TX.
OTHERWISE, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH S TX FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SEASONAL BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A LOW RAIN
CHANCE BY THE WEEKEND, BUT HAVE SINCE LOWERED THE CHANCE TO <10%.
THE RAIN CHANCES MAY FLUCTUATE WITH THE NEXT SEVERAL UPDATES AS
MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH COULD DETERMINE IF IT RAINS OR NOT. A 20% CONTINUES
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOG HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
VARYING RESTRICTIONS. WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING FORECAST WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR EASTERN AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEFLY LOW VIS AT WESTERN SITES AS WELL. FOG FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS MORE DIFFICULT AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOESN'T OCCUR, WOULD EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO A FRESH(BF 5) MONDAY
NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO STRONG (BF 6) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY MORNING, THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG (BF
6) REDEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30% THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY, LEADING TO A DRIER PERIOD
WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES RANGING AS LOW AS 15-30% NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 79 62 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 82 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 83 62 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 76 64 78 64 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 79 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 82 63 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 75 67 76 66 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83
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