599
FXUS64 KCRP 060545
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1145 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE FOG. MODELS INDICATE AREAS OF FOG TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT SHOW THE LOWER VISIBILITIES/DENSER FOG FARTHER WEST
WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HELPING TO KEEP THE
AIRMASS MIXED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF S TX. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS S TX, THUS FOG COULD MORE
PATCHY WITH VISIBILITIES 2SM OR HIGHER. A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES 4-5SM. WILL MAINTAIN FOG IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS S TX BUT WITH THE DENSER FOG GENERALLY FROM ALICE
TO BEEVILLE AND WESTWARD. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SEA FOG. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 64-68 DEGREES
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR VISIBILITY
TRENDS ACROSS LAND AND WATERS FOR POSSIBLE FOG ADVISORIES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL CONTINUE EACH MORNING THROUGH MID WEEK AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DRYNESS CONTINUES ACROSS S TX.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING, THUS THE FOG MAY BE MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY OR MAY NIGHT
DEVELOP AT ALL WITH MAINLY LOW STRATUS. THE PROBABILITY OF
VISIBILITY 1SM OR LESS RANGES FROM 30% ALONG THE COAST 60-80%
FARTHER WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN DROPS 5-15% THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH S TX
FRIDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS LOW DUE
TO VARYING OUTPUT FROM THE MODELS, BUT EXPECTING TIMING EITHER
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH A FRIDAY ARRIVAL.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BECOMING BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND OVER THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER. WINDS RELAX
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES S TX. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH S TX FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW, THUS,
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF S TX.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOG FORECAST A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TONIGHT, BUT GUIDANCE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST AREAS AROUND AND WEST OF ALI SHOULD SEE
SIGNIFICANT VIS REDUCTIONS. LESS CONFIDENCE AT VCT AND CRP, BUT
ALREADY SEEING VCT BOUNCING IN AND OUT OF IFR CONDITIONS SO EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE. HAVE IFR TO LIFR FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT CRP, WHERE
HAVE MAINTAINED JUST TEMPO MVFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE PERIOD
WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE TYPICAL DIURNAL LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE DEVELOP.
NOTED A VIS REDUCTION AT VCT BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD, BUT OTHER
SITES LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
A SOUTHERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) BREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO STRONG (BF 6)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY MORNING, THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG (BF
6) REDEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY, THEN 20-
30% CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30% THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY, LEADING TO A DRIER PERIOD
WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES RANGING AS LOW AS 15-30% NEXT WEEKEND.
NORTH WINDS STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS
THE REST OF THE TIME. THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 82 65 82 68 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 84 61 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 84 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 85 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 78 65 78 67 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 84 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 84 62 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 76 67 76 69 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83
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