762
FXUS64 KCRP 201121
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
521 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- WIDESPREAD FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
- COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW
RH AND GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FOG FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. 925MB WINDS,
WHILE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT COULD STILL BE THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
OF DENSE FOG. WITH THE HAZE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALL DAY YESTERDAY
AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S, LEANING TOWARD AN EXPECTATION OF
WIDE SPREAD LOW VIS, AND LIKELY AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATER AREAS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1 MILE AND
WITH MORE CONDUCIVE WINDS THAN LAST NIGHT EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO
FALL, THUS A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THROUGH MID-
DAY. WITH SUCH A DEEP LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER, VIS CONDITIONS WILL
BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. LOCATIONS IN THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND ALONG THE UPPER COASTAL BEND HAVE SEEN VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AND AS SUCH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 9AM.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. STILL THINK WE COULD
SEE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS ALONG THE UPPER COAST THIS MORNING AND
ALONG THE WHOLE COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK INSTABILITY EACH MORNING. INSTABILITY INCREASES A BIT TODAY, SO
CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER, BUT STREAMER TYPE CONVERGENCE ACTIVITY IS
TRADITIONALLY MORE OF A MORNING SITUATION, AND WITH THE SHALLOW
NATURE (BELOW 850MB), THIS IS THE PRIMARY PLAYER EXPECTED, THUS WILL
KEEP THIS AFTERNOON DRY.
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY, BUT IT'LL TAKE A REINFORCING SURGE COMING THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON CONDITIONS. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD OPEN UP THE QUESTION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE BEST LIFT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MARINE AREAS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH MORE PARALLEL FLOW OVER LAND.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S IN THE BRUSH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 80S ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER
PUSH OF COOLER AIR COMES IN. HIGHS DROP TO THE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
FOG HAS ENVELOPED MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE GREATEST REDUCTIONS OF
VIS IS CONCENTRATED IN THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND IN THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS, WHERE THERE IS A MIX OF TERMINALS IN
IFR/LIFR. REDUCED CIGS HAS BROUGH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OTHER
TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENTS WON'T OCCUR UNTIL AFTER MID-MORNING. A
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AFTER 00Z WHICH MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG
TONIGHT FOR KVCT, BUT ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
VIS/CIGS. BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE, SURFACE WINDS WILL START
SWITCHING TO BE MORE E/NE'LY WHICH SHOULD BE WHAT STARTS
DIMINISHING FOG AHEAD OF THE SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH (BF 5) BREEZES. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN LOW CHANCES (15-20%) FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURN OVER AREA WATERS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH FRESH
TO STRONG (BF 5-6) CONDITIONS AND SEAS AT 6-10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING
THROUGH SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
ELEVATED RH VALUES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY. WE'LL HAVE AN INITIAL PUSH EARLY SATURDAY
WITH A STRONGER PUSH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT'S UNCLEAR HOW
MUCH RH VALUES WILL DROP SATURDAY, BUT WINDS ALSO REMAIN ONLY
MODERATE. BY SUNDAY, VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE. RH VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER END
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 83 63 84 49 / 10 0 10 0
VICTORIA 81 60 82 43 / 10 0 10 0
LAREDO 90 65 85 49 / 0 0 10 0
ALICE 89 62 86 46 / 10 0 10 0
ROCKPORT 80 65 82 50 / 10 0 20 0
COTULLA 85 60 84 44 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 88 63 85 48 / 10 0 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 77 65 78 52 / 10 0 20 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ233-234-
245>247-345>347-447.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-237-
250-255.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...AE/82
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