538
FXUS64 KCRP 201912
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
112 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MARINE DENSE FOG
LINGERING UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR SATURDAY DUE TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MARINE FOG HAS BEEN LINGERING JUST OFF THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FURTHER TONIGHT AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT,
THOUGH FOR NOW THE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW. IN TERMS OF CONDITIONS OVER LAND, CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO DETERIORATE AS THE WINDS RELAX IN THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVER LAND THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT DUE TO THESE FACTORS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF HAZARDS SUCH AS
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BRUSH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION). THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AROUND 20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS AND SEAS
AROUND 7-12 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UP THIS PACKAGE
AROUND 40-80% FOR GUSTS ABOVE 40 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF PACKAGES TO SEE IF AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING MAYBE NEEDED.
OUTSIDE OF HAZARDS, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO WARM BY WEDNESDAY BACK
INTO THE 80S AND 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN TEETERING BACK AND FORTH.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS DENSE FOG AND
VERY LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP WITH WINDS RELAXING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE MORNING UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES AND WINDS INCREASE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH
(BF 5) BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN LOW
CHANCES (15-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN OVER AREA WATERS
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE (BF 5-7)
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO GALE AND SEAS AT 7-12 FEET . A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THIS FACTOR, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THIS MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF PACKAGES. DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY LINGER HEADING INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW FUELS, HIGH
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (50TH-89TH PERCENTILE), AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS (N AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH). DUE TO THIS A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. POOR RECOVERY HEADING INTO SUNDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
REPEAT EPISODE OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THOUGH, AS DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION WE WILL LIKELY SEE
CONCERNS SPREAD INTO THE ENTIRE REGION. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK AS RH VALUES ARE
FORECASTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER END THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 62 82 47 68 / 0 10 0 0
VICTORIA 59 80 42 67 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 64 82 47 70 / 0 10 0 0
ALICE 61 84 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 63 82 49 68 / 0 10 0 0
COTULLA 60 82 42 68 / 0 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 62 84 47 69 / 0 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 65 77 51 65 / 0 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ229>233-
239>241.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...NP/92
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page