576
FXUS64 KCRP 211118
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
518 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED TODAY DUE TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
EXPECT CONTINUED FOGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
WINDS SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY AS MOST SITES HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COME DOWN.
THE INITIAL PUSH OF A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN STALLED JUST OUTSIDE OF
OUR AREA SINCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DEWPOINT OF 47 IN PLEASANTON
AND 70 IN LIVE OAK COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING, BUT NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON CONDITIONS. THE STRONGER PUSH
COMES THROUGH BY MID-DAY (FASTER THAN EARLIER MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING). A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
TAPS INTO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH WE'LL CLEAR OUT THE LINGERING FOG
AND HAZE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 80S, THOUGH DID CUT BACK JUST A TOUCH FROM
NBM WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON, AND THIS COMBINED WITH DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO A
CRITICAL FIRE CONCERN FOR INLAND AREAS.
SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
SUNDAY WILL AGAIN SEE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH, AND A RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND HEADING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WINDS
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING SHIFTS EAST. ABOVE THE
SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, WE'LL TAPPING INTO VERY WARM AIR IN
AND AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. RECORDS WILL BE TOUGH, BUT NOT UNBREAKABLE. SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
CIGS ARE AT MINIMUM REDUCING FLIGHT CATEGORIES DOWN TO MVFR, BUT
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT OCCURRING AFTER 12Z
AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASING AFTER 14Z, WE'VE ONLY GOT A FEW HOURS
LEFT WITH THESE REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD DECK QUICKLY
BREAKS UP AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB INTO VFR
CONDITIONS BY 18-20Z. NE WINDS TONIGHT CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND 20
KTS SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 30 KTS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LLWS,
BUT A HINT THAT KCOT/KVCT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AFFECTED SITES
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE, I LEFT OUT THESE
LINES FROM THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT WE'LL KEEP MONITORING TRENDS IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH VERY
STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. ROUGH
SEAS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. WHILE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DOING
THE DAY SUNDAY, STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY IN DEEP WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS RETURN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SHIFTING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEASTER.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS - THIS TIME OUT OF THE SOUTH - IS
LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW FUELS,
HIGH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (50TH-89TH PERCENTILE), AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS (N AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH). DUE TO
THIS A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY, EXTENDING FARTHER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS RH VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER END
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG. AS RH VALUES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES
SOAR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIALLY MORE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 82 47 68 44 / 20 0 0 0
VICTORIA 80 42 67 39 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 81 47 70 42 / 20 0 0 0
ALICE 85 45 69 39 / 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 82 49 69 47 / 20 0 0 0
COTULLA 79 42 69 38 / 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 84 47 69 41 / 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 77 51 66 52 / 20 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ229>233-239>241.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ233-234-
245>247-345>347-447.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-237-
250-255.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GMZ231-
232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...AE/82
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