515
FXUS64 KCRP 220010
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
610 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY DUE TO ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY.
- GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THIS EVENING UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL WATERS.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
AS OF LATE THIS MORNING THE FRONT IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
OUR CWA AND WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AS WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY AFTERNOON TO EVENING
TODAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVER THE WATERS LATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING STARTING AT 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. ONCE WINDS SUBSIDE BY TOMORROW CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD BEHIND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVES EAST OF TX.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MID-WEEK AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS
OVER TEXAS WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE. THIS MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
HAZARDOUS/DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS AGAIN MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE COOLER (60S/70S) AND
WILL TREND UPWARD TOWARDS MID- WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING
ON WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S
GENERALLY WEST OF US 77/I-37 CORRIDOR.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS IT DOESN'T LOOK AS
STRONG BUT THAT IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH
SO CURRENTLY AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TALK ABOUT POSSIBLE HAZARDS
UNTIL FORECAST TRENDS START TO CONVERGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR VCT AND CRP, BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FOR FARTHER INLAND
TERMINALS. FEW TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVING OVER THE WATERS WILL HAVE INCREASING
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. VERY STRONG TO GALE FORCE (BF 7-8) NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING. CHOPPY TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN DEEP WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS RETURN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, VEERING SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS - THIS TIME OUT OF THE SOUTH - IS LIKELY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
INCREASED WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN BEHIND IT THIS
AFTERNOON. RESULTING IN HIGH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (50TH-69TH
PERCENTILE), STRONG GUSTY WINDS (N AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH) AND RFTI VALUES OF 3-4. COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AS
LOW AS 18%, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL
PLAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
SUNDAY, EXTENDING FARTHER INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK AS RH VALUES ARE
FORECASTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER END (15-30%) THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. AS RH VALUES
REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES SOAR WEDNESDAY INTO
THE 90S, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIALLY MORE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 47 68 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 42 67 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 46 70 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 45 69 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 49 69 46 66 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 42 69 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 46 69 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 51 66 52 64 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ229>233-
239>241.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-237-250-
255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...PH/83
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page