430
FXUS64 KCRP 221847
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1247 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY DUE TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS WEEK
- UNSEASONABLY WARM MID-WEEK
- LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LOW WILL CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY
MID-WEEK, HOWEVER, A DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO
CONVERGE ON A LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE (FROPA),
THOUGH TIMING ADJUSTMENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION
(WAA), AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL HEATING. NOT SURPRISINGLY, A
WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 850 MB TS PEAK AROUND MID-WEEK NEAR +2
SD ABOVE NORMAL, TRANSLATING TO WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, AS THE RECORD HIGH
AT CRP COULD BE CHALLENGED. ANOTHER COUPLE OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 40S (30S NORTH) TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
BEFORE MODERATING INTO THE MID 50S TO 60S.
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY TO THE WEEKEND,
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND A STRENGTHENING ~35-40 KT LLJ WILL
SUPPORT: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 KT
BECOMING VARIABLE BETWEEN NE AND N OVERNIGHT AROUND 06 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT, WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FLOW (BF 6-7) GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE (BF 4-5) IS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY, STRONG TO
NEAR GALE (BF 6-7) CONDITIONS REDEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GALE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT NOON AND HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) ALSO
REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE 75-85TH PERCENTILE, AND RFTI VALUES OF 3-4.
COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOW AS 14%, LEADING TO ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES UNTIL 6
PM THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 44 66 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 35 66 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 43 71 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 38 69 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 47 66 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 39 70 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 40 68 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 52 63 56 71 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ230>234-
240>247-342>344-346-347.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...BF/80
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