682
FXUS64 KCRP 231100
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
500 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 452 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM MID-WEEK
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN BY MID-WEEK.
- LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS,
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN
NORTHERN AND LOW LYING AREAS BY MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TOMORROW WITH JUST SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS OVERHEAD. RIDGING
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY
SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH, NOT SPENDING MUCH TIME IN A
SOUTHEAST FLOW WE WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON MOISTURE LEVELS STAY
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK AND WITH SOUTH TO WEST WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE, IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS FOR A LOT OF THE AREA
WILL BE INTO THE 90S, EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THESE DAYS AND COULD THEN
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN CHANGING, WITH
A FASTER PASSAGE IN LATEST RUNS. WILL MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED. IF TIMING CONTINUES TO CHANGE,
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY COULD BE ADJUSTED, BUT THE FRONT IS NOT
GOING TO BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR ANYWAY, SO IT WOULDN'T BE
MUCH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. LINES WERE ADDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND SHIFT FROM NE'LY COMPONENT TO A ESE'LY
COMPONENT AFTER 22Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 10 KT TODAY,
DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
FRESH TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH ON MONDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY, STRONG TO NEAR GALE (BF 6-7) SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW TO MODERATE RH.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
WITHOUT A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, RH VALUES WILL FALL TO VERY
LOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL BEND WHILE LOWEST
RH WILL BE INLAND, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERLAP IN THESE
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 48 75 60 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 66 39 74 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 72 48 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 69 43 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 66 53 73 63 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 70 43 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 69 45 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 64 56 72 64 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...AE/82
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