091
FXUS64 KCRP 231837
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM MID-WEEK
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN BY MID-WEEK.
- LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE, WHILE A NOR'EASTER IS IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST
REGION WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL AND DANGEROUS WINTER CONDITIONS.
RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. MEANWHILE A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF.
THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FROPA TOWARDS
AN EARLY FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A
STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA BOUNDARY WITH EWX LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. FOR THIS PACKAGE
HAVE OPTED TO NOT STRAY FROM THE NBM WHICH INCLUDES A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED CHANGES TO
FROPA TIMING MAY AFFECT THURSDAY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT
BEING A WEAK FRONT ANYWAY, NOT EXPECTING A BIG CHANGE.
THROUGH THURSDAY, THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, MODEST
WAA AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING. UNLIKE THE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE EXPERIENCING MORE SUMMER-LIKE
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCLUDING
WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK
AND A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR A DAY OR SO AFTER THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S AND 60S THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN
THE CARDS EACH AFTERNOON MID-WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. ACCOMPANIED
BY NE/E WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT AT A FEW
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND WILL SETTLE IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (BF 3-4) THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER ONSHORE TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO STRONG (BF 6) WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR GALE TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTER GRADIENTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 15% TODAY ARE WIDESPREAD WITH LOCAL AREAS
NEAR 10%. WINDS ARE LIGHT TODAY AND ERC VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION ARE IN THE 50-69TH PERCENTILE EXCEPT LA SALLE, WEBB AND
PORTIONS OF VICTORIA COUNTIES WHICH ARE IN THE 75-85TH PERCENTILE
RANGE. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FOR RH VALUES
TOMORROW, VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 15-30%
RANGE ACROSS INLAND LOCALES. ACCOMPANIED BY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY, NO
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED BUT ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 48 74 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 38 74 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 48 79 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 43 79 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 54 74 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 43 79 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 45 78 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 56 71 64 78 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...BF/80
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