397
FXUS64 KCRP 240547
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1147 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DAILY.
- VERY WARM WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
- LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
RIDGING HAS OFFICIALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS NOW AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE TURN TO THE
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE IN THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG LLJ THAT WILL
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO KEEP GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST UNLESS WE CAN DECOUPLE, BUT THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY. YES,
WE'VE BEEN PRETTY BREEZY THE PAST FEW DAYS. IS THIS UNUSUAL? NOPE.
WE'RE MOVING INTO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR WINDY CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL BEND (MAR/APR). TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE HEAT REALLY ON FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL BE COMMON.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...ELEVATED TODAY, AND POTENTIALLY
CRITICAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
RESULT IN LOWER RH VALUES.
TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK
CONTINUE TO BE FUZZY. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH IT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY WHILE OTHERS OPEN UP THE SURFACE LOW AND NOT HAVING
MUCH PUSH SOUTHWARD OF THE FRONT. WE WONT STRESS TOO MUCH ABOUT THE
TIMING DETAILS OF THIS FRONT RIGHT NOW AS IT DOES NOT ACTUALLY BRING
A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE AREA OTHER THAN A DIFFERENT WIND
DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND THERE CONTINUE
TO BE NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. S'LY WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 KTS AFTER 16Z. TONIGHT, A LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY ADDING IN LLWS CONCERNS AFTER 06Z AND INTO
THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS TODAY AS BOTH WIND
AND RH ARE NOT QUITE TO CRITERIA OVERALL, BUT BRIEF PERIODS ABOVE
ARE POSSIBLE. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 15% WEST AND 30-40% EAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY BOTH OF THESE DAYS TO LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH LOW RH LEVELS PERSISTING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 48 76 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 38 74 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 48 80 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 43 81 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 54 74 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 43 81 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 45 79 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 56 72 64 79 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...AE/82
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