064
FXUS64 KCRP 121055
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
555 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
- FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND TODAY
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SEASONALLY-
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
- BELOW-NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN STORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MOST LOOSE ITEMS SHOULD ALREADY BE SECURED,
YOUR NEIGHBORS MIGHT APPRECIATE THE ITEMS THAT HAVE ALREADY ESCAPED
YOUR PROPERTIES AS A RESULT OF THIS MORNING'S WINDS. WITH A DRY AIR
MASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION, THE COMBINATION OF THESE BREEZY WINDS
AND LOW RH'S HAS ALSO PROMPTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON (FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT) FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. RH VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS TO KEEP
THEM OUT OF THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT, BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
SPRING BREAKERS, IT'S ALWAYS A GOOD REMINDER TO REMEMBER THAT BURN
BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS. TONIGHT, LOWS ARE LOOKING TO
DROP INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS AND INTO THE 50S ALONG
THE COAST. WITH A CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE AND WEAK WINDS, WE'LL HAVE A
GOOD SET UP FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING (WE'LL SEE IF WE ARE
ABLE TO SEE ANY UPPER 30S FOR LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR TYPICAL
COLD DRAINAGE SPOTS). SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN THE HOTTEST
OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING 100F ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NBM HAS TRENDED COOLER WITH TUESDAY
MORNING'S LOW TEMPS, SHOWING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS/BRUSH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE LOW 40S. THERE'S STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD FOR HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET,
WITH THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE SHOWING LOCATIONS IN AFOREMENTIONED
REGIONS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. SOMETHING WE'LL KEEP WATCHING TO
SEE HOW MODELS RESOLVE THIS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON (18Z-
20Z) BECOMING LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE A CONCERN IN THE
MORNING WITH 8-11 FT SEAS (UP TO 13 FT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE). BY
TONIGHT, WINDS DROP BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2-4 FT. A
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY MORNING WITH 2-
3 FT SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE A RETURN OF NEAR-GALE
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY. BEYOND 7 AM WINDS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN, GOING FROM 15-20 MPH
TO 5-10 MPH BY SUNSET. RH WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15-20% FOR THE
BRUSH COUNTRY WITH 20-30% ALONG THE COAST. WITH WINDS REMAINING
STRONGER ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, THE FIRE RISK WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED, THEREFORE PROMPTING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM
NOON TO 7 PM TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 30% FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE FIRE RISK ELEVATED BUT
UNDER CRITICAL CONDITIONS. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT HAS
HAS RH VALUES DROPPING TO 10-15% MONDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY PUSHING
THE FIRE RISK TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 70 46 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 68 42 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 74 46 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 72 43 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 71 55 74 62 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 71 43 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 71 43 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 68 55 72 64 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ232>234-242>247-
342>347-442-443-447.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ231-232-236-237-
250-255-270-275.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ231-
232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...LS/77
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