758
FXUS64 KCRP 122307
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
607 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
- FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THROUGH
7 PM THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
- BELOW-NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN STORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BEHIND YESTERDAY'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS, LOWER HUMIDITY,
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR, CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND IN THE 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE
COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON FRIDAY AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST, INITIATING A WARMING
TREND AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEEKEND AS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND WAA INTENSIFIES THROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY, UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND USHERING
IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, RAIN CHANCES
CURRENTLY APPEAR VERY LOW (10-15%) AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH TUESDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TO POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENTLY THE
COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. BREEZY POST-FROTNAL WINDS AND
DRY AIR COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS, LEADING TO A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES. PREVAILING GROUPS IN THE TAFS ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN
S'LY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING, AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SEA-BREEZE WIND
SHIFT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT SUSTAINED SE WINDS FOR KCRP
AFTER 19Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
LINGERING ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE
AND 6-8 FOOT SEAS. BY TONIGHT, WINDS DROP TO LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-
3) LEVELS AND SEAS TO 2-4 FEET, CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO
BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF NEAR-GALE
TO GALE FORCE (BF 7-8) CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND THIS
AFTERNOON, GOING FROM 15-20 MPH TO 5-10 MPH BY SUNSET. MINIMUM RH
VALUES HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS 15-20% FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS AND AS LOW AS 20-30% ALONG THE COAST. WHILE
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING, OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS COMBINED
WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERCS) IN THE
70TH-89TH PERCENTILE, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER
30% FOR INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE FIRE RISK
ELEVATED BUT UNDER CRITICAL CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-20% BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, LIKELY LEADING TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 48 78 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 43 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 46 85 57 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 44 84 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 56 74 62 79 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 46 84 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 45 82 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 57 72 64 77 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...AE/82
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