818
FXUS64 KCRP 131102
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
602 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE THIS WEEKEND
- STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY INCREASING FIRE RISK TO
CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND A BREEZY MONDAY
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE, BUT STILL REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK, WHILE THE RELATIVELY
COOL WATERS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP SPRING BREAKERS ON OUR LOCAL
BEACHES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL LOOKING TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH GALE CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS AND
QUITE THE BLUSTERY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ADDITIONALLY, LATEST NBM
CONTINUES TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
TUESDAY'S MORNINGS LOWS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ON UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WITH RH DROPPING
DOWN TO AS LOW AS 10% MONDAY AFTERNOON, FIRE AND WIND HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED CONSIDERED FOR LATER FORECAST PACKAGES THIS WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, WE SEE AN UPWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES AS ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. MOST TERMINALS WILL STAY
BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CRP WHICH COULD SEE WINDS TO
15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH 2-3 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL
THEN TURN MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASES TO FRESH
STRENGTH (BF 5) WITH SEAS INCREASING 4-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH GALE CONDITIONS (BF 8) AND SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 11-16 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15-20% ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY, WHILE ALONG THE COAST, A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
RH VALUES FROM DROPPING BELOW 30%. WITH WEAKER WINDS TODAY, THE FIRE
RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY
INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE LEADING TO MIN RH'S SATURDAY TO REMAIN
ABOVE 25% ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A HOT AFTERNOON SUNDAY WILL KEEP RH'S
IN THE 15-20% RANGE WITH 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS
CREEPING THE FIRE RISK HIGHER. THE NEXT BIG CHANGE WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH 20-25 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS
AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 10%, LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 59 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 78 54 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 86 58 95 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 84 54 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 75 63 79 68 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 85 54 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 83 56 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 72 64 77 70 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...LS/77
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