128
FXUS64 KCRP 140658
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
158 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 156 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- WARM DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
- COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
MONDAY AND GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS MARINE SITES
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
ALLOWING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL (10-15F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LOCATIONS LIKE LAREDO). WATER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
COASTAL ZONES TO HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WITH BREEZY
WINDS 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED. WE REMAIN IN THIS WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEVELOP LOW THAT'LL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY-LINE/PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP MIN RH VALUES IN THE 10-15% RANGE
BUT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAKER TO THE STRONG SURGE OF THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMALLY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT LEADING TO THE DAY'S RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAXING OUT IN THE DAY. WITH THIS COLD FRONT, HOURLY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STRUGGLE TO INCREASE ABOVE 30% ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WERE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING START TIME MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
TO START AT NIGHT TIME. WE'LL CONTINUE TO DISCUSS WITH THE DAY SHIFT
AND LIKELY START ISSUING HEADLINES AS SOON AS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY SINCE MIN RH VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO 5-10%.
WINDS OVER LAND WILL LIKELY WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY MORNING AT THE SAME TIME, THOUGH WIND WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. AND THIS IS JUST THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. ANY SPRING BREAKERS ENJOYING OUR LOCAL BEACHES AND OUT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WATERS WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE
GALE CONDITIONS IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO ABOVE-
NORMAL VALUES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
BRIEF PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS BETWEEN 10-14Z, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
ON THIS OTHERWISE VFR NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE MORNING,
SCOURING OUT ANY FOG. LOW CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN SITES BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CEILINGS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A PERSISTENT MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WILL
ALLOW 3 FT SEAS TODAY INCREASE TO 5-6 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING PRODUCING GALE NORTHERLIES. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO XX TO XX
FT. CONDITIONS DECREASE TO BELOW STRONG (BF 6) WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FRONT LEADING
WITH MODERATE CHANCES (30-50%).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WITH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES AMONG THE 70TH-89TH PERCENTILE
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
THROUGH SATURDAY, OUR FIRE RISK WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. WHILE
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK, THIS WILL KEEP THE FIRE
RISK FOR CLIMBING FURTHER. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE MONDAY MORNING. RH VALUES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 30% AS
A POWERFUL SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST (GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH).
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 5-10%. AS SUCH, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED MONDAY, BUT IT MAY START AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
GIVEN THE LACK OF THE RECOVERY OF RH VALUES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW
MIN RH'S TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO DROP TO 15-20% THUS KEEPING THE FIRE
RISK ELEVATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 82 67 93 47 / 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 82 64 88 42 / 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 95 66 98 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 90 64 97 45 / 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 80 68 84 47 / 0 0 0 10
COTULLA 92 64 96 45 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 87 65 97 47 / 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 77 69 82 50 / 0 0 0 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...LS/77
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