027
FXUS64 KCRP 151920
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
220 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 219 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- RED FLAG WARNING, GALE WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY WILL BEGIN TONIGHT
- COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS MARINE SITES
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN
A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS. STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO VARIOUS WEATHER HAZARDS (WIND ADVISORY, GALE WARNING
AND RED FLAG WARNING) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COUPLE OF
COOL DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK IN PLACE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL VEER TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER 10Z AND STRENGTHEN TO THE 30-40
KNOT RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A LITTLE LATE MONDAY MORNING, THEY ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO GUSTS TO THE MID 20'S TO LOW 30S KNOT RANGE. WHILE NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THE TO THE TAFS, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL SITES BETWEEN 7-10Z TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A FRESH BREEZE (BF 5) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT FRONT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH
POSSIBLE AND SEAS UP TO 15 FEET. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
GALE WARNING BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AT 10 PM THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. YOU CAN EXPECT FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE
ISSUED MONDAY ONCE WINDS DECREASE BELOW GALE SPEEDS. EXCEPT FOR A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-55%) FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN
A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND MID MORNING AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS AROUND THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE TIMES OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-35% AND DROP FURTHER TO THE
10-25% PERCENT RANGE AROUND MID-MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL IMPROVE A BIT FOR TUESDAY
BUT CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER CRITICAL VALUES. WHILE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY REMAIN LOW, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG, TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE WEAKER
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 49 64 44 67 / 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 43 60 36 66 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 50 67 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 47 65 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 48 64 45 67 / 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 46 64 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 48 66 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 51 63 52 65 / 10 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
TXZ229>233-239>241.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
TXZ234-242>247-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237-250-255-270-275.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...JCP/84
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